17 January 2020 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar edged up over optimistic data.
Greenback rose against a basket of six major peers on yesterday after several economic data fared better than expectation. For the month of December, Core Retail Sales which exclude sales of automobiles rose by 0.7%, significantly higher than forecast of 0.5%. The data shows resilient consumer spending for its third consecutive month despite a slowdown in job growth last month due to higher savings and rising house prices. Similarly, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the month of January shows further expansion, with its latest reading coming in at 17.0, significantly higher than forecast of 3.8. Manufacturing activity on the east coast picked up due to high order volumes and shipments. Both data has confounded investors speculation whereby US economy is being hit badly by US-China trade war which has linger for more than a year. With diminishing trade risk following the signage of phase 1 trade deal, investors will now continue to scrutinize upcoming data releases from the US in order to gauge its economic momentum. Elsewhere, safe-haven Japanese yen extended its losses as demand for the currency waned following the signage of phase 1 trade deal. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.00 while USD/JPY ticked up 0.02% to 110.17.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.02% to $58.60 per barrel. Oil futures managed to pare its prior losses as preliminary US-China trade deal fueled market optimism with regards to future economic growth and possible uptick in future oil demand. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.03% to $1,552.10 a troy ounce due to diminishing demand for safe-haven asset as market risks diminishes.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.6% | 0.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) | 1.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Building Permits (Dec) | 1.474M | 1.468M | – |
| 23:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) | 7.267M | 7.233M | – |
| 02:00
(18th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 659 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 97.20, 97.60
Support level: 96.80, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior breakout from narrowing triangle. MACD which formed bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3135.
Resistance level: 1.3135, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1145, 1.1180
Support level: 1.1110, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 110.40.
Resistance level: 110.40, 110.80
Support level: 109.65, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6885. MACD which formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6955
Support level: 0.6885, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6615
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.3060. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3060, 1.3140
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2890
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.9670, 0.9730
Support level: 0.9620, 0.9560
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from 57.95. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 60.00, 61.70
Support level: 57.95, 56.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel formation. MACD which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1553.00, 1563.20
Support level: 1541.20, 1523.40