17 March 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback may rebound soon?
US dollar remains under pressure on Tuesday following aggressive monetary policy move from Federal Reserve in order to try and reduces recessive risk upon the US economy as coronavirus continues to disrupt global activity. The rapidly spreading coronavirus has roiled up global markets for the past few weeks, inducing higher volatility and large selloff on global equities. US Federal Reserve took a significant measure by reducing its interest rates to zero late Sunday while announcing another round of massive bond purchasing in order to mitigate risks from financial tensions that could dampen growth and jobs market outlook. However, most analysts believed that traders have digested the news and weakness experienced by the US dollar may be temporary. They also believed that US dollar continues to received support from the market due to various reasons, from investors touting it as alternate safe-haven currency as well as businesses that increases their liquidity during periods of uncertainty. On the other hand, pound sterling recovered some overnight losses as market participants speculate further easing from the Bank of England. Some investors expect Bank of England to announce more stimulus measures after its meeting on March 26 which may include further rate cuts or a restart of quantitative easing. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.76% to 98.04 while GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2268.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered overnight losses by 1.19% to $28.89 per barrel. On yesterday, oil futures were sold off extensively after Saudi Arabia announced to produce oil at maximum capacity, fuelling worries that global oversupply may swell even further. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.77% to $1,503.24 a troy ounce as investors liquidate their position on this commodity in order to fulfil margin calls in their equity accounts.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index+ Bonus (Jan) | 2.9% | 3.0% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | 5.5K | 21.4K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | 8.7 | -26.4 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) | 6.423M | 6.476M | – |
| 04:30
(18th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 6.407M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 98.70, 99.75
Support level: 97.90, 97.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2550
Support level: 1.2170, 1.1960
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1285
Support level: 1.1080, 1.0925
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 106.70, 108.00
Support level: 105.40, 103.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6175. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6175, 0.6300
Support level: 0.6050, 0.5915
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a tight range of 0.6000 and 0.6100. Due to the lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6100, 0.6200
Support level: 0.6000, 0.5870
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.3940. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.4125.
Resistance level: 1.4125, 1.4300
Support level: 1.3940, 1.3685
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9470.
Resistance level: 0.9470, 0.9545
Support level: 0.9385, 0.9320
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher as technical correction.
Resistance level: 30.00, 33.00
Support level: 27.55, 25.10
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses towards the direction of 1491.10.
Resistance level: 1541.20, 1603.10
Support level: 1491.10, 1441.00