17 December 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar extend loss following dovish Fed and Powell.
During early Asian session, the dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pair have fell following recent FOMC initial rate decision announcement. As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve kept the interest rate in a range of 0% to 0.25% while policymakers are committed to supporting the economy until they see “substantial further progress” in employment and inflation. However, Powell has emphasised that the FOMC’s ultra-accommodative policy stance is not going anywhere any time soon. He also stated that that the FOMC could deliver more stimulus if required. The dovish statement and inaction from the Fed have disappointed the market as investors initially expected further easing, thus dragging the greenback further below. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.25% to 90.08.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $48.02 per barrel as of writing following positive data from EIA. According to EIA, crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels last week, more than the 1.937 million-barrel drawdown forecast by analysts. At the same time, the commodity also continues to draw support from hopes of a faster demand recovery as countries across the globe approve coronavirus vaccines. On the other hand, gold price soars 0.03% to $1864.89 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid ongoing dollar weakness.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16.30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
17.00 CHF SNB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | -0.3% | -0.3% | – |
| 20.00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) | 0.10% | 0.10% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Building Permits (Nov) | 1.544M | 1.550M | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 853K | 800K | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 26.3 | 20.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 89.95. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 90.55, 91.40
Support level: 89.95, 89.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3505. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.3300.
Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3735
Support level: 1.3300, 1.3150
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2165. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2355.
Resistance level: 1.2355, 1.2575
Support level: 1.2165, 1.2010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 103.65. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 103.20
Resistance level: 103.65, 104.50
Support level: 103.20, 102.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7570. However, MACD which bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the support level 0.7450.
Resistance level: 0.7570, 0.7655
Support level: 0.7450, 0.7340
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7105. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7175
Support level: 0.7010, 0.6900
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2830.
Resistance level: 1.2830, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2680, 1.2540
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.8850. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.8920.
Resistance level: 0.8920, 0.8985
Support level: 0.8850, 0.8775
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 48.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 48.60, 50.85
Support level: 46.40, 43.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1850.45. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1881.25.
Resistance level: 1881.25, 1920.00
Support level: 1850.45, 1815.15