18 June 2021 Morning Session Analysis
US dollar continue to rise over hawkish Fed.
US dollar extended its gains on yesterday over the backdrop of hawkish signals delivered by US Federal Reserve. Majority of Fed officials anticipated at least 2 rate hikes in the year of 2023, significantly earlier than prior forecast of year 2024. In addition, a small number of Fed officials believes that a rate hike is possible in the year 2022 if US economy recovers substantially and achieve their designated target in mid-term. Both signals suggest that Federal Reserve have discussed the possibility of tapering their monthly bond purchasing program and laying the way for a higher interest rate in the future in current market and economic condition continues to improve. However, gains on the US dollar were limited following the release of bearish economic data from yesterday. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims increased for the first time in 2 months to 412K, significantly higher than forecast of 359K. On the other hand, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ticked down to 30.7 for the month of June, slightly lower than forecast of 31.0. As of writing, the dollar index fell 0.01% to 91.85 during Asian trading session.
For the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.02% to $70.65 per barrel following bullish sentiment towards further recovery in the global oil demand as coronavirus cases subsides substantially. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.03% to $1,777.90 a troy ounce as US dollar undergoes technical correction.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.80% | 9.20% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 91.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 91.90, 92.20
Support level: 91.45, 91.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3965. However, MACD which illustrated diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3965, 1.4030
Support level: 1.3900, 1.3860
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1915. However, MACD which illustrated diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1915, 1.1955
Support level: 1.1865, 1.1800
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrated bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the MA line.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.85
Support level: 109.90, 109.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7560. However, MACD which illustrated diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7650, 0.7600
Support level: 0.7515, 0.7475
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7000. However, MACD which illustrated diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7065
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2250. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.2360.
Resistance level: 1.2360, 1.2415
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2250
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9205
Support level: 0.9145, 0.9120
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following a retrace from the resistance level near 71.00. MACD which illustrate increasing bearish momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 71.00, 71.70
Support level: 70.00, 69.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following a rebound near 1772.00. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1795.00, 1813.00
Support level: 1772.00, 1755.55