19 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid Fed’s dovish comments, gold surged.
Index dollar which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs plunged to its lower levels following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Richard Clarida yesterday. Clarida criticized that policy makers should not delay necessary rate cuts until the economy is in total distress and emphasized that decision should be made following where the economy is actually going and the ongoing risks towards the economy. Besides that, Clarida also commented on recent mixed data in the US and also the disappointing global data which indicated more intense disinflationary pressures. The dovish comments had weighed on expectations for a rate cut of 50 basis point during Fed’s July policy meeting, causing investors to sell the dollar and enter into safe-haven gold. In other news, pair of GBP/USD rebounded from its low-levels yesterday following upbeat Retail Sales data. According to Office for National Statistics, UK retail sales for the month of June rose to 1.0% from -0.6%, beating economists’ expectation of -0.3%. The large rebound in the retail activity had rekindled investors’ confident towards the UK economy despite economic pressure from Brexit uncertainties. Besides that, the pound also received higher demand after the dovish comments from Fed which also led investors to escape the weaker dollar and enter into riskier assets. As of writing, index dollar inched higher by 0.02% to 96.43 while pair of GBP/USD inched higher by 0.01% to 1.2545.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded by 0.52% to $55.90 per barrel following reports on another seizing of foreign oil tankers by Iran in the Persian Gulf, heightening geopolitical tensions. Before that, oil prices were falling due to diminishing tensions in the Middle East as US President Donald Trump tried to make peace with Iran. In reaching a truce between the two countries, Iran will most probably be allowed back into global market to export oils, providing bearish expectations for oil prices. Next, gold price retraced by 0.19% to $1443.15 a troy ounce after skyrocketing more than $30 yesterday following dovish comments from the Fed which led investors to flee into safe-haven market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jun) | -0.1% | -0.1% | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (Mom) (May) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 98.2 | 98.6 | – |
| 01:00 (20th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 784 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 96.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.70, 97.10
Support level: 96.30, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2510. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2595.
Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1280. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 1.1235.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 107.60.
Resistance level: 107.60, 108.15
Support level: 107.05, 106.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7065. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7065, 0.7035
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6720
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3040. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3105
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9895, 0.9935
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 56.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 56.00, 57.85
Support level: 54.50, 52.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1437.95. However, MACD which starting to display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1437.95.
Resistance level: 1457.10, 1475.50
Support level: 1437.95, 1421.40