20 December 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Fed member suggests earlier interest rate hike.
US dollar rebounds sharply last Friday as market participants reacts to hawkish signal from one of Federal Reserve members. According to Fed Official Christopher Waller, he expects inflationary pressure to rise further next year over the backdrop of temporary factors in the market such as supply chain issues and raw material shortage. Waller emphasized that Fed’s monetary policy meeting in March will be the key turning point as they might discuss possibility of initiating an interest rate hike. He reiterates that a faster than expected interest rate hike still dependent on future data while such moves will rely on economic resilient despite Omicron risks in the US. Following his remarks, investors speculate that an interest rate hike may occur as early as March 2022 after Fed’s bond purchasing program ends during that month. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are currently pricing in with 56% and 85% of interest rate hike possibility during March and June 2022 respectively. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.02% to 96.59.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped by 1.53% to $69.25 per barrel. Bears continues to take over oil futures as Omicron spreads rapidly across the globe, dialing down market expectation for a recovery in demand next year. On the other hand, gold price was down by 0.02% to $1,800.91 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher after a breakout occur at 96.60.
Resistance level: 96.60, 96.80
Support level: 96.35, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signals suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3355
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3150
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1285
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1160
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.35
Support level: 113.15, 112.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower short-term.
Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7180
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7040
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.6725.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6670
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signals suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2975
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2765
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.9255, 0.9280
Support level: 0.9230, 0.9210
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 69.30.
Resistance level: 70.40, 73.00
Support level: 69.30, 67.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 1807.15, 1819.85
Support level: 1791.40, 1776.95