21 June 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Safe-haven dominates market, trade talks resumed.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs continues to fall as investors flee into safe-haven markets following dovish Fed statement and geopolitical issues. Recently, Fed removed its ‘wait and see’ approach from its statement and hinting a rate cut during its July policy meeting. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump stated in his Twitter in regards to Iran’s attack on US spy drone that ‘Iran made a very big mistake’ and when questioned on whether US will strike back, Trump told reporters that they will soon find out. The heightened tensions between the two countries had spiraled uncertainties in the market, causing investors to seek protection in safe-haven assets. Right now, market participants are focusing on the G20 summit in Japan next week after China confirmed to meet with US counterparts to further trade talks. Recently, President Xi Jinping confirmed to resume negotiations with President Trump during the G20 meeting over a phone call, possibly to end a year-long trade war. Some argued that a deal will most likely be impossible, however some still sees hope that the two largest economy will meet a consensus to end the prolonged war which had since dampened global economy. For the moment, investors are placing their bets on safe-haven assets while waiting for further signal from the market. As of writing, dollar index was falling by 0.09% to 96.00 while pair of USD/JPY fell 0.21% to 107.06.
As for commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.30% to $56.96 per barrel after investors took profit from the oil price hike amid geopolitical tensions. However, sentiment remains cloudy while investors wait for further signal from the G20 summit where President Trump and Xi will meet to further trade talks. On the other hand, gold price skyrocketed by 1.17% to $1,404.50 a troy ounce due to investors’ risk aversion.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 44.3 | 44.6 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.7% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (May) | 5.19M | 5.29M | – |
| 01:00
(22nd) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 96.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 96.15.
Resistance level: 96.15, 96.35
Support level: 95.85, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2695. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2695.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2795
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2610
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1280. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.45. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.80.
Resistance level: 107.45, 107.85
Support level: 106.80, 106.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6935. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6960
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level at 0.6600.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6540
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3175. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3130
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9810. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9855.
Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 57.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 58.25, 59.70
Support level: 57.05, 55.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1400.00. MACD which display bullish signal suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1415.00.
Resistance level: 1415.00, 1432.45
Support level: 1400.00, 1386.40