25 May 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar hovered two-years low amid fears upon inflation risk.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs hovered near two-year lows as investors anxiously awaited a crucial US inflation data this week in order to gauge the likelihood monetary policy in future. A high reading of core inflation data would likely lower the value for the US Dollar while prompting investors to shift their portfolio toward other currencies. Nonetheless, since the US economy had continued to make rapid progress toward the Federal Reserve’s goals, market participants have to start pricing a slightly more hawkish statement from Federal Reserve going forward while anticipating higher U.S. interest rates coming when the U.S. in order to combat inflation risk. Many economists highlighted the important for the committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its long-run goals while maintaining its inflation at stable rate. Though, the overall statement from the Federal Reserve remained vague recently, hence investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of further economic data as well as Federal Reserve’s statement to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.20% to 89.85.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $66.00 per barrel as of writing as the rapid Covid-19 vaccination progress had spurred positive prospect for the resolution of the Covid-19. According to latest data, the new cases have declined in recent weeks and test positivity rate has fallen under 2.5% compared to 36% last month in India. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.05% to $1880.35 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | -1.7% | -1.7% | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) | 96.8 | 98.1 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (May) | 121.7 | 119.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 1,021K | 975K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 89.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 90.50, 91.30
Support level: 89.65, 89.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4130. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.4130, 1.4335
Support level: 1.4130, 1.4000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2165. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2240.
Resistance level: 1.2240, 1.2340
Support level: 1.2165, 1.2065
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 108.60. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65
Support level: 108.55, 108.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7715. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7780.
Resistance level: 0.7780, 0.7815
Support level: 0.7715, 0.7685
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7155. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7235.
Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7300
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7110
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2040. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term amid technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2265, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2055, 1.1840
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8965. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9155
Support level: 0.8965, 0.8875
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 64.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 66.50.
Resistance level: 66.50, 67.80
Support level: 64.85, 63.60
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1882.90. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1882.90, 1921.60
Support level: 1836.35, 1797.20