25 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar climbs on rate cut expectation ease and data.
The dollar have edge higher against its basket of six major rival pairs as investors pared expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts ahead of key U.S. economic data due later in the day. U.S Federal Reserve is widely expected to take a preemptive rate cut by 25 basis point during their policy meeting next week. However, investors are starting to assume that it could be only a one-off event and not the start of major easing cycle. In addition to support the view, U.S durable goods order data on Thursday which display a surge on U.S capital goods order have cater more reason for the market to reevaluate expectations of global monetary easing. Market will now be focused on upcoming the GDP data to gauge further on the underlying strength of the economy. Dollar index edge higher 0.03% to 97.48 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD slips 0.02% to 1.2451 at the time of writing as concerns regarding UK’S negotiation to leave the EU continues to clench investors’ sentiment. Following a campaign that focused on delivering Brexit “do or die” by Halloween, U.K Boris Johnson waste no time on announcing his latest key cabinet position. Despite that, investors continue to be left in the dark as Brexit meeting between UK and EU remains on hold where EU members are currently awaiting for Boris Johnson’s plan.
As for commodities, crude oil price fell 0.10% to $55.83 per barrel as of writing following a poll which display the possibility of continuous slow economic growth. According to Reuter’s poll which include 500 economist, the growth outlook for nearly 90% of over 45 economies polled was either downgraded or left unchanged. The polls adding further pressure for the commodity and dragged the commodity lower despite supply disruptions. On the other hand, gold price plummets 0.15% to $1415.45 a troy ounce as of writing following a stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 3.1% | 1.8% | – |
| 01:00
(27th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 779 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 97.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest dollar to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.20
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2490. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2425.
Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1120. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1185.
Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1075
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its resistance level 108.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.6965. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6930.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.6675. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3160. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3050
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9905. However, MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.9860.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 56.30. However, due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 56.30, 57.95
Support level: 54.60, 52.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1405.00.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1435.90
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35