26 February 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar slump amid disappointing economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies sink amid downbeat data provided the latest sign of U.S. economic weakness. According to the US Conference Board, US Consumer Confidence came in at a reading of 130.7, slightly improved from last month reading of 130.4 but yet weaker than the economist forecast of 132.0. The data shows some signs that recent outbreak of coronavirus epidemic somehow have tampered the consumer view on future economic growth tremendously. As of now, market are still putting their attention on more economic data with bated breath to scrutinize the future direction of dollar index, as recent data started to reflect the negative impact of virus’s outbreak on US economy and goes against the estimation of market participants. On the other hand, the single currency of Europe retraced from its recent high level following Germany GDP data registered zero growth in the last three month of last year. According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, GDP data came in at 0.0% as widely expected while showing the output of country has fell significantly and reflecting the sluggish economy of German may continue to trap in subdued growth for a longer period. As of writing, dollar index fall 0.37% to 99.00 while the pair of EUR/USD inched down 0.01% to 1.0875.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.14% to $50.00 per barrel amid decrease in stockpile slightly lifted up the positive sentiment of crude oil market. According to API, US crude oil inventories came in at 1.300M, lower than the forecast of economist at 4.200M. However, with the spreading fast of coronavirus epidemic outside China is seemingly will continue to rip the market view toward the oil future demand. Besides, gold price inched up 0.19% to $1638.35 a troy ounce amid coronavirus continue to put the global financial market in risks.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jan) | 694K | 715K | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – U.S Crude Oil Inventories | 0.414M | 2.494M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4：Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 99.05. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum signal suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 98.65.
Resistance level: 99.05, 99.55
Support level: 98.65, 98.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2920
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.0855. MACD which illustrated bullsih momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.0895.
Resistance level: 1.0895, 1.0935
Support level: 1.0855, 1.0795
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 110.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 110.55.
Resistance level: 110.55, 110.90
Support level: 110.25, 109.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded flat within a sideway channel. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the top level of sideway channel in short term.
Resistance level: 0.6620, 0.6650
Support level: 0.6585, 0.6560
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6320. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6305.
Resistance level: 0.6320, 0.6355
Support level: 0.6305, 0.6285
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3265. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 1.3265.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3395
Support level: 1.3265, 1.3210
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9750. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9780.
Resistance level: 0.9780, 0.9810
Support level: 0.9750, 0.9720
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 49.70. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity extend its gains toward the resistance level at 50.65.
Resistance level: 50.65, 51.65
Support level: 49.70, 48.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1639.30. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1656.80, 1686.70
Support level: 1639.30, 1628.35