26 February 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar jumps amid recent spike in treasury yield.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies surged following an unexpected rise in US 10-year treasury yield, raising the market concern across the asset classes. Yesterday, the yield on the benchmark of 10-year treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than a year following weaker than expected bid in US government debt auction. In fact, the spike on treasury yield lately is showing a global belief that central banks may start to change their tone by pare back their ultra-loosening policy, even most of the them are still remain sceptical in the recent speech with regard to the economic outlook. This belief was derived from the market participant’s optimistic view over the future growth of underlying inflation and economic outlook amid unprecedented government stimulus package as well as smooth-running of vaccination program. Besides, a significant fall in the number of American applying for unemployment insurance has also relieved the market worries over the economic health in US. According to the Department of Labor, US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 730K, lower than the forecast at 838K, indicating the job cut in US started to decline as vaccination accelerate. As of writing, dollar index ticked up by 0.02% to 90.20.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.05% to $63.45 per barrel while lingering near the highest level in more than a year as investors are waiting for more signal from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. In the OPEC+ meeting, the members and their allies will discuss and determine if any adjustment in the oil cuts would be made on April onward. Besides, the gold price drops by 0.01% to $1770.00 a troy ounce after dollar managed to pare its last night losses.
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 90.00. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 90.45.
Resistance level: 90.45, 90.75
Support level: 90.00, 89.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4010. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.4085, 1.4150
Support level: 1.4010, 1.3945
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2165. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2195, 1.2230
Support level: 1.2165, 1.2105
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 106.45. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 106.45, 106.75
Support level: 106.10, 105.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7890. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7850.
Resistance level: 0.7890, 0.7940
Support level: 0.7850, 0.7815
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7374. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7335.
Resistance level: 0.7375, 0.7415
Support level: 0.7335, 0.7300
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2685
Support level: 1.2555, 1.2485
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9040. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9090.
Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9125
Support level: 0.9040, 0.8985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 63.55. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 63.55, 64.80
Support level: 62.45, 61.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1765.15. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1786.55, 1803.00
Support level: 1765.15, 1738.10