27 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar supported by trade sentiment, euro pressured.
Greenback received bullish momentum following recent trade developments after China and US showed signs of truce despite the announcement of tit-for-tat tariffs. Earlier on Monday, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He stated that they are willing to resolve the ongoing trade disputes via calm negotiations followed by US President Donald Trump surprising tweet. According to his Twitter, Trump confirmed that he received two phone calls from China which requested to bring negotiations back to the table and praising Premier Xi Jinping for being a good leader as he welcomes his desire to achieve a peace treaty. The news was able to lift market sentiment while causing investors to sell their position in safe-haven assets and enter into dollar market, right after the two economic powerhouse spiraled uncertainties in the market with their punitive tariffs against each other. However, dollar gains was capped after the release of poor Core Durable Goods Orders data which fell to -0.4%, missing economists’ expectation of 0.1%. In other news, euro received further downward pressure following the release of German Ifo Business Climate Index data. The business climate fell to a low of 94.3, missing its forecasted value of 95.1 while signaling possible further monetary policy loosening by the European Central Bank (ECB). As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.08% to 97.85 while pair of EUR/USD ticked higher by 0.02% to 1.1102.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.11% to $53.83 per barrel. On early Monday, oil prices was supported by positive trade sentiment following Donald Trump’s tweet. However, gains on oil were erased following reports on Trump’s willingness to meet with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani later that day. The report spiraled concerns that if both country were able to settle their disputes, US sanctions on Iran may be lifted and chances of oversupply in the market will increase. However, until an official meeting take place, oil traders will still focus on upcoming inventory data to gauge oil’s movement. On the other hand, gold price ticked higher by 0.02% to $1527.35 a troy ounce. Safe-haven gold fell from its top levels yesterday following positive trade developments.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | -0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) | 135.7 | 129.5 | – |
| 04:30 (28th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -3.500M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 97.50.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2220. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2170.
Resistance level: 1.2255, 1.2345
Support level: 1.2220, 1.2170
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 1.1115.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 106.00. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 105.60
Resistance level: 106.00, 106.65
Support level: 105.60, 105.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (blue). MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6395. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6330.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3275. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3340
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3185
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9775, 0.9730
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 54.65.
Resistance level: 54.65, 55.90
Support level: 53.10, 51.15
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1526.60. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1548.05.
Resistance level: 1548.05, 1565.50
Support level: 1526.60, 1507.10