28 January 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar standstill amid neutral monetary policy from Fed.
The dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies lingered near the one week high level after Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged as market expected. In the two-days meeting, Federal Open Market Committee agreed to keep its interest rate anchored near to zero and no dissents over the current asset purchase program which cost Fed $120 billion a month. Besides, Fed reiterated that they will continue stick to the new framework of policy where achieving maximum employment and inflation rate above 2 percent were still their aims in long run. The chairman of Fed Jerome Powell emphasized that the policy will remain “highly accommodative as the recovery progresses”. In term of tapering, Powell also mentioned that they will modify their asset purchase program only after a substantial further progress toward their goal is being seen. Nonetheless, the path of the economy are still fully depend on the course of virus, which including the vaccination progress in US as the ongoing virus’s crisis continue haunting the economic recovery. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.48% to 90.60.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped by 0.27% to $52.45 per barrel as of writing despite a massive drawdown in US oil inventories as of last week. According to the EIA, US crude oil stocks dropped by 9.910M, bigger than the economist forecast at 0.430M, countered the market concern over the fallout of virus against the oil market. Besides, gold price dropped 0.14% to $1841.67 a troy ounce amid strengthening of US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP(QoQ)(Q4) | 33.4% | 4.0% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 900K | 875K | – |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Dec) | 841K | 865K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 90.60. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 90.60.
Resistance level: 90.60, 91.10
Support level: 90.25, 89.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the upward trendline. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3700, 1.3805
Support level: 1.3620, 1.3535
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2120.
Resistance level: 1.2120, 1.2155
Support level: 1.2065, 1.2020
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 104.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 104.35.
Resistance level: 104.35, 104.70
Support level: 104.00, 103.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7665. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7635.
Resistance level: 0.7665, 0.7735
Support level: 0.7635, 0.7580
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7165. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7165, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7015
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2800. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2615
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 0.8885. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.8915.
Resistance level: 0.8915, 0.8955
Support level: 0.8885, 0.8855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the upward trendline. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 52.60, 53.75
Support level: 51.65, 50.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1842.90. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1825.40.
Resistance level: 1842.90, 1861.05
Support level: 1825.40, 1803.40