28 February 2020 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar fell amid expectation of rate cut increase.
The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have plunged during early Asian session as market expectation of Fed rate cut increase due to the spreading coronavirus. According to the latest data, money markets are now fully expecting for a 25 basis point cut in the Fed’s rate by April and also another three by March next year. The expected move is to offset the impact of the coronavirus epidemic that have been dragging the global economy as the virus continue to add fatality and infection rate and stoking fears that the economic impact of travel curbs, supply chain disruptions, and falling demand might be far greater than previously anticipated. At the same time, the decline in US yields also weigh on the sentiment where the 10-years yield have bottomed to a new all-time low of 1.25%. At the time of writing, dollar index plummeted 0.62% to 98.32.
In the commodities market, crude oil price continue to extend its downfall and fell 0.12% to $46.65 a barrel as of writing amid ongoing concern of the coronavirus. The commodity have crash to 2017 lows after U.S reported its first possible “community infection” from the coronavirus involving an individual who had developed symptoms despite not traveling out of the country or being in contact with another infected person. The reports have increase fear of potential damage towards the oil demand. On the other hand, gold price remains steady and edge higher 0.04% to $1646.61 a troy ounce as risk of global epidemic continue to support the price of gold.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) | -2K | 3K | – |
| 21.30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 02.00 (29th Feb) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 679 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 98.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 98.35.
Resistance level: 98.90, 99.40
Support level: 98.35, 97.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2865. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.2865.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2865, 1.2750
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1000.
Resistance level: 1.1000, 1.1085
Support level: 1.0885, 1.0785
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 109.20. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 109.20.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.95
Support level: 109.20, 108.25
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6595. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.6595.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6420
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6305. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6385.
Resistance level: 0.6385, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6305, 0.6210
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3380. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3325, 1.3260
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9895. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9625.
Resistance level: 0.9695, 0.9750
Support level: 0.9625, 0.9550
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 48.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 49.40.
Resistance level: 49.40, 51.20
Support level: 46.55, 44.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the support level 1639.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher towards resistance level 1683.10.
Resistance level: 1683.10, 1717.10
Support level: 1639.25, 1613.35