28 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback revived while investor eyes on trade war.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies recovered amid upbeat data which prevents greenback from falling further. According to Conference Board, U.S August CB Consumer Confidence data came in at 135.1, beating the economist forecast of 129.5 while it indicating that the consumer are remain confident toward the US economy and willing to spend. However, recent escalation on trade war between two biggest economy countries has exerted adverse effects to the global economy and eventually may dampen the consumer optimism regarding the economic outlook. Trump tactics on tariff imposition has further deepen the distrustfulness between US and China, seemingly trade war will be extended to a longer period. Thus, global central bank which including Federal Reserve are now keeping their eye on trade war development while remain ‘open’ for further rate cut when necessary. During Asian trading session, dollar index up 0.01% to 98.00. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted down 0.03% to 1.2280 after hitting one month high level following the good news about Brexit from G7 talk. As Brexit deadline looming, the possibility of hard Brexit faded as recent news reported that Boris Johnson has brought up the Brexit issue to the table in G7 talk, lightning up the investors hope on EU leaders such as Angela Markel and Macron might be persuaded to return to the renegotiation table.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.02% to $55.65 per barrel amid surprise withdrawal in oil inventories. According to American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventory data fall to -11.100M from previous month at -3.500M. Unexpected drop in stockpile has mitigated the market worries over crude oil supply glut. On the other hand, gold price ticked higher by 0.10% to $1544.00 a troy ounce as market risk preference has fallen.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
05:30 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
(29th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Sep) | 9.7 | 9.6 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.700M | -2.112M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line (Blue).
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2255. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2345.
Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2255, 1.2220
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1115. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower level while currently testing near the support level at 105.60. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation such as breakout below or rebound before entering the market.
Resistance level: 106.00, 106.65
Support level: 105.60, 105.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6750. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6835
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6395. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6330.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3275. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3335.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9775. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9840.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9775, 0.9730
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the downward the trend line. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the downward trend line.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1526.60. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1548.05.
Resistance level: 1548.05, 1565.50
Support level: 1526.60, 1507.10