30 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar hovered despite pessimistic economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies lingered around 98.35 after hitting one month high level despite downbeat data been released from US region yesterday. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP came in at a reading similar to the economist forecast of 2.0%, but slightly weaker than previous month reading of 2.1%. Although the data indicated that US economy slowed a bit than previous month which due to declining in business investment, however it is noteworthy that consumer spending’s component was undergo robust growth. As a crucial tools of gauging the economy health, a slightly slower pace of growth than last month showed that US economy more or less has been hit by the trade war against China while it drag up the market expectation of rate cut or quantitative easing in the next month Fed meeting. As of writing, dollar index inched down 0.07% to 98.30. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD fall 0.02% to 1.1050 during early Asian trading session amid dovish stance from President ECB Christine Lagarde lifted up the market expectation of more rate cut to negative rate in coming month. Yesterday, Lagarde reiterated that EU zone economy is still facing the problem of slowing down and inflation persistently undershooting the ECB’s target, hence ECB will take preventive measure by introducing fresh stimulus in order to untie the economy from recession.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.05% to $56.60 per barrel amid investor fears over the approach of Hurricane Dorian toward Florida as it may disrupt the output of oil if it unfortunately passes into Gulf of Mexico. Besides, gold price dropped 0.17% to $1524.75 a troy ounce amid heightening of market risk sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 7.5% | 7.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jun) | 209K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 92.1 | 92.1 | – |
| 01:00
(31th) |
USD – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 754 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest dollar to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.2170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.2220.
Resistance level: 1.2220, 1.2255
Support level: 1.2170, 1.2085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1070. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.1030.
Resistance level: 1.1070, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0985
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 106.65. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.20.
Resistance level: 106.65, 107.25
Support level: 106.20, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6750. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6695.
Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6635
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6330. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6270.
Resistance level: 0.6330, 0.6395
Support level: 0.6270, 0.6200
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.3275. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.3335.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was trade higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9775
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 56.80. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 56.80, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1526.85. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after its candle successfully close below the support level at 1526.85.
Resistance level: 1548.05, 1565.50
Support level: 1526.90, 1507.10