30 September 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD surged amid optimistic China data.
AUDUSD surged as positive China data was released in this morning. Since Australia’s economic growth is strongly tied with China, the positive reading has provided some bullish support towards AUD. According to China Logistics Information Center, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 49.8, exceeding the economic forecast for a reading up to 49.5. Such positive sentiment should signal a good economic prospect for China and the threat of trade war had a less impact toward the China economy. However, investors would continue to scrutinize future economic data in order to gauge the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate decision on Tuesday’s RBA meeting. On the other hand, EUR/USD slump as bleak data was released on last Friday. According to the data, German import prices fell sharply in August, while the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 101.7 in September, lower than the economic expectation at 103.00. French Consumer inflation data also came in below the market expectations. In addition, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane hinted that the bank still has space for further monetary easing when its new President Christine Lagarde takes over in November. However, investors would pay close attention in today’s crucial economic data today in order to gauge the future direction of policy from the European Central Bank and the movement of the pair. As of writing, AUD/USD slump 0.13% to 0.6755 and EUR/USD depreciated by 0.06% to 1.0929.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.20% to $56.02 per barrel on easing tensions in Middle East after a rather surprising turn of events. Saudi Arabia is implementing a partial cease-fire in Yemen while rumors surfaced that the U.S. is considering easing sanction on Iran. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.33% to $1491.82 per troy ounces amid positive expectation for a resolution of trade war which sparked higher demand for risky assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Sep) | 4K | 5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | -0.2% | -0.2% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Sep) | 50.4 | 50.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 98.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 98.85.
Resistance level: 98.85, 99.20
Support level: 98.55, 98.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level at 1.2310. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2355
Support level: 1.2260, 1.2190
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 20 MA line (red). However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.0995
Support level: 1.0915, 1.0900
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its support level at 107.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 108.55.
Resistance level: 108.55, 109.10
Support level: 107.20, 106.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6760. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward support level at 0.6745.
Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6790
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6730
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6290. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward support level at 0.6260.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6325
Support level: 0.6260, 0.6235
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a range while currently testing at the resistance level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3215, 1.3195
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9930. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher as technical correction toward the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9870, 0.9810
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a range while currently testing at the resistance level at 56.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 56.40, 57.90
Support level: 55.45, 54.85
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1506.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower toward the support level at 1481.85.
Resistance level: 1506.70, 1526.35
Support level: 1481.85, 1439.85