30 September 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback retraces, all eyes on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Greenback halts its prior bullish trend and retraced from the higher levels last Friday after recent data shows lower-than-expected inflationary pressure. Although Core Durable Goods Orders for the month of August came in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve preferred inflation measure – Core PCE Price Index missed economists’ forecast. For the month of August, Core PCE Price Index for the month over month comparison slowed down to 0.1%, missing economists’ forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%. The latest reading suggests cooling inflationary pressure and spending after a strong appreciation in the second quarter. Prior, the Federal Reserve initiated two interest rates cuts in order to curb slowing global economic growth and trade war risks in between US and China. For the time being, investors will be anticipating the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report due this Friday in order to attain more market signals. In the other region, pound sterling remains in a downtrend due to the lack of Brexit negotiation progress in between UK and EU. Although EU was reportedly open for re-negotiation, UK has yet to send a written proposal for Brexit deal and this increases the uncertainty over its outcome when the 31st October deadline approaches. As of writing, the dollar index slipped 0.01% to 98.71 while pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.03% to 1.2293.
For commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.14% to $56.09 per barrel. Oil futures received some bearish pressure over signs of cooling economic momentum in the United States which may dial down its demand for crude oil in the future. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.22% to $1,500.25 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Sep) | 4K | 5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | -0.2% | -0.2% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Sep) | 50.4 | 50.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to experience technical correction after closing below 98.65.
Resistance level: 99.00, 99.20
Support level: 98.65, 98.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070
Support level: 1.0930, 1.0870
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 108.05, 108.45
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6830
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6705
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6290. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above 0.6290.
Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6320
Support level: 0.6250, 0.6220
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3255. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9865.
Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9865, 0.9820
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 56.70, 57.30
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1503.00, 1509.00
Support level: 1494.50, 1483.50