30 October 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie recovers on inflation data.
The Aussie dollar rebounds against the greenback following the release of CPI data. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia CPI have improved to 0.5% in the third quarter, well within market expectation. The upbeat inflation figure has helped to reinforce market sentiment while at the same time decreasing the prospect for further rate cut from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Based on the official data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut for the cash rate in November now stands at only 14%. For the first time, the market no longer expect for a 25 basis point cut in the first half of year 2020. At the time of writing, AUD/USD have rose 0.04% to 0.6864 while dollar index edge lower 0.01% to 97.42.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.47% to $55.12 per barrel at the time of writing as sentiment remain pressured by fears of sluggish demand. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat near $1487.75 a troy ounce while investors remain in fixated upon further developments with regards to trade negotiation and Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
(31st)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) | -10K | 2K | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 5.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) | 135K | 120K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 2.0% | 1.6% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.699M | 0.494M | – |
| 02:00
(31st) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.00% | 1.75% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.15
Support level: 97.05, 96.40
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded within a range while currently testing near the support level at 1.2850. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2940
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2815
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1070. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1120, 1.1180
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1010
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 109.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 108.40.
Resistance level: 109.00, 109.55
Support level: 108.40, 107.70
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6840. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6880.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6920
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6800
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 0.6330. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6495
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6260
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.3140.
Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3020
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9925. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9955, 0.9975
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 56.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 54.65.
Resistance level: 56.75, 58.05
Support level: 54.65, 52.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1482.90. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1495.50.
Resistance level: 1495.50, 1503.95
Support level: 1482.90, 1473.90