30 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback swoops amid pessimism of trade deal.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies slumped after recent news showed that Trump administration unwilling and maybe unable to achieve the phase 1 trade deal in upcoming meeting between both premiers in Chile. Despite, US government revealed that the progress on solving the issue of trade deal is still good, if the deal may not be signed on November meeting, it does not mean the deal will be broken. On the other side, mixed economic data from US region also drove the greenback’s direction unclear. According to the economic data, US CB Consumer Confidence data came in at 125.9, missing the forecast of economist at 128.0 while hinting consumers are pessimistic toward the economy growth outlook. However, upbeat result of Pending Home Sales data lifted up the appeal of dollar as it been reported at 1.5%, unexpectedly higher than economist forecast at 0.9%. Dollar index inched down 0.08% to 97.40 during Asian early trading session. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted up 0.01% to 1.2865 while remained as the hottest trading pair in forex market. Under the support from Labour party, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to win in a vote on requesting a general election during the season of winter, December 12. In the voting, the house of common has approved the legislation paving the way for the first general election since year 1923 by the margin of 438 votes to 20, with an intention to solve the Brexit deadlock as early as possible.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticks down 0.02% to $55.37 per barrel amid US inventories data shows a stockpile of 0.6M. Nevertheless, market sentiment are still blurred with the conflicting report which showed OPEC might willing to have further oil production cut but Russia not interested in doing more. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat near $1,487.80 a troy ounce amid investors are continue to eyes on further news from trade negotiation.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
(31th)
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) | -10K | 2K | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 5.0% | 5.0% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) | 135K | 120K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 2.0% | 1.6% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.699M | 0.494M | – |
| 02:00
(31th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.00% | 1.75% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate downward momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 97.30.
Resistance level: 97.75, 98.35
Support level: 97.30, 96.85
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2820. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3170
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1125.
Resistance level: 1.1125, 1.1200
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0930
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the upward trend line.
Resistance level: 108.90, 109.25
Support level: 108.40, 107.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level at 0.6880. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6795, 0.6700
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 0.6325.
Resistance level: 0.6365, 0.6410
Support level: 0.6325, 0.6285
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3085.MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3085.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2905
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9945. MACD which illustrate persistent upward momentum suggests the pair to be trade higher after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9810
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests its price to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 55.90
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.55
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1488.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests its price to extend losses toward the support level at 1484.70.
Resistance level: 1488.30, 1495.50
Support level: 1484.70, 1476.85