31 March 2021 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar surged amid IMF’s optimistic view in global economic forecast.
Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies managed to extend its rally while lingering near the 4 months high-level amid US economic optimism boosted the treasury yield. Yesterday, IMF (International Monetary Fund) unleashed their upbeat tone in global economic outlook, while emphasizing that they will lift its projections for global economic growth in the report of World Economic Outlook. With the improved vaccination program progress and Biden’s massive stimulus plan, IMF are now even optimistic and confident with their growth forecast and believes that ongoing vaccination program will prop up the world economy. Despite, IMF also warned that there is still high uncertainty ahead which clearly pointed at the possibility of resurgence of new strain virus. Besides, Biden is expected to outline the source of capital for $3 trillion to $4 trillion Biden’s infrastructure plan later today, while part of investors is remains cautious before the announcement. The acceleration of vaccine program and size of infrastructure plan urged the yields to rise and the dollar is benefiting. As of now, dollar index rose 0.35% to 93.27.
In the commodities market, the crude oil price dropped by 0.18% to $60.30 per barrel amid API reports inventory build early today. According to the API, US crude oil stocks increased by 3.910M, higher than the economist forecast at 0.400M, raising the market concern over the equilibrium of oil market on top of the resurgence of virus in Europe. Besides, the gold prices depreciated by 0.01% to $1685.05 per troy ounce amid weakening of dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Mar) | 9K | -3K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY)(Mar) | 0.9% | 1.3% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) | 117K | 550K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM)(Jan) | 0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Feb) | -2.8% | -2.9% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.912M | 0.107M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.35. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 93.35, 93.55
Support level: 93.00, 92.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term.
Resistance level: 1.3755, 1.3805
Support level: 1.3675, 1.3625
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1755. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1695.
Resistance level: 1.1755, 1.1830
Support level: 1.1695, 1.1615
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 110.25. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 111.05.
Resistance level: 111.05, 111.55
Support level: 110.25, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7600. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7655, 0.7700
Support level: 0.7600, 0.7565
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6945.
Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7105
Support level: 0.6945, 0.6900
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.
Resistance level: 1.2685, 1.2775
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2560
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9430. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering into the market.
Resistance level: 0.9430, 0.9480
Support level: 0.9370, 0.9310
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 60.65. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 59.30.
Resistance level: 60.65, 61.70
Support level: 59.30, 57.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1679.75. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1699.60, 1710.80
Support level: 1679.75, 1665.35