31 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback struggled on mixed economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies hovered around two years high level at $98.00 amid mixed data has ‘stunned’ the market sentiment toward greenback. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis, US first quarter of GDP was came in at a reading parallel to economist forecast of 3.1% while data showing significant growth in consumer spending, government spending and net exports. Growth in GDP indicating that US economy is still remain resilient and consumers are still optimistic toward the economy outlook in short term. However, Greenback did not receive a momentous demand from the market as the GDP data reflected the economy activity and health of US in first quarter of 2019, before the current escalation of the US China trade war. Besides, appealing of dollar index dragged down further amid downbeat US Pending Home Sales data, where the reading was -1.5%, weaker than economist forecast 0.9%. During early Asian trading hours, Dollar Index inched down 0.02% to 98.00 while the pair of USD/CAD surged 0.23% to 1.3530 amid crude oil price dropped significantly.
As for commodities market, crude oil price quoted down 0.67% to $55.95 per barrel amid EIA data showed a very slight decline in US oil inventories. The EIA said US crude oil stockpile fell nearly 300k barrel last week, less than the 900k barrel decline analyst forecast. Besides, gold price inched up 0.32% to $1292.59 a troy ounce amid dollar weaken.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (May) | 1.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PCE Deflator (MoM) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr) | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Mar) | -0.1% | 0.4% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) | 102.4 | 102.0 | – |
| 01:00 (1st) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 797 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 97.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to further its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 98.25, 98.60
Support level: 97.95, 97.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2615. Due to lack of momentum from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2515
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1120. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 109.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.20
Support level: 109.15, 108.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6930. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6860.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6820
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.6510. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6465.
Resistance level: 0.6510, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6465, 0.6430
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3530. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3575
Support level: 1.3490, 1.3435
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 1.0070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0070, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0020, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 56.75. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.05.
Resistance level: 56.75, 58.45
Support level: 55.05, 53.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1294.00. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1294.00, 1302.50
Support level: 1287.85, 1278.90