31 October 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Fed holds off from cutting interest rates for foreseeable future.
Greenback extended its losses after Federal Reserve cut its interest rate in a bid to circumvent any recession risks that arises due to ongoing global trade war. In a highly expected decision, Fed cut its interest rate by 25 basis points with 8 policymakers voted in favor while two opposed of the action. The divided opinion among policymakers came due to mixed economic signals from recently released data. While economic growth has slowed significantly, it has held better than expected, diminishing slightly from 2% rate as seen in the last quarter. However, manufacturing and business investments continues to fall due to rising uncertainty from US-China trade war and other trade disputes. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank would hold off from cutting its interest rates further for a foreseeable future. Powell commented that the current interest rate level is “appropriate” and “in-line” with Fed’s economic outlook of moderate economic growth, coupled with resilient labor market and inflation hovering at 2%. For the time being, investors would continue to scrutinize upcoming economic data releases from the United States in order to gauge the stance of Federal Reserve when they meet for policy meeting at the end of the year. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.25% to 97.20 while pair of USD/CHF slumped 0.51% to 0.9890.
As for commodities, crude oil price rebounds by 0.15% to $54.86 per barrel. Oil futures continues to hover within a tight range although recent report from Energy Information Administration shows ongoing upward trend of US crude oil stockpiles. On the other hand, gold price remains flat at $1,495.57 a troy ounce while market participants continue to monitor the global market for developments in trade war and Brexit.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 0.8% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower after closing below the support of 97.35. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 97.15.
Resistance level: 97.35, 97.60
Support level: 97.15, 96.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2950.
Resistance level: 1.2950, 1.3035
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1205
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support of 108.75. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 109.30, 109.70
Support level: 108.75, 108.45
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6910, 0.6980
Support level: 0.6815, 0.6780
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6425.
Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6495
Support level: 0.6340, 0.6270
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3200.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.9865.
Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9865, 0.9820
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 54.45. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher, towards the direction of 55.55.
Resistance level: 55.55, 56.70
Support level: 54.45, 53.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1496.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher after a breakout occur at 1496.00.
Resistance level: 1496.00, 1511.00
Support level: 1484.05, 1477.00