190918 Daily Analysis
19 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar falls on China’s retaliation.
Greenback was losing its strength by 0.05% to 94.10 against its basket of six major currencies at early Asian trading session amid China’s retaliation yesterday on US President Donald Trump announcement of 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods during Monday. Despite the threat from Trump’s twitter post where additional tariff on $267 billion Chinese goods will be imposed if China were to retaliate, China had also announced new tariff on $60 billion US goods. Increasing tension of the trade war has caused investors to lose confident towards the dollar in fear of Trump’s next move in trade war. Attention from global markets will now be placed on the outcome and situation of the trade war which will determined the future movement of the dollar. In other news, Canada’s Loonie continued to strengthened by 0.02% to 1.2970, falling to a new low since 30th August caused by positive sentiment from yesterday releasement of economic data Manufacturing Sales with an actual reading of 0.9% higher than the forecasted data of 0.6%. Analyst from RBC stated that although there are concerns about possible trade disruptions between the US and Canada, Canada’s manufacturing sector was still able to perform better.
As for the commodities market, crude oil edged up by 0.19% to $69.60 per barrel amid China’s retaliation to impose tariff on $60 billion of US goods. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.45% to $1203.50 per troy ounce as dollar index continues to plunge.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 2.5% | 2.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Aug) | 1.311M | 1.310M | – |
| 22:30 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.296M | -2.741M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3180. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1.3145.
Resistance level 1.3180, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1690. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1645.
Resistance level: 1.1690, 1.1730
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1615
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 112.20. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.60, 113.10
Support level: 112.20, 111.95
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was recently traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 69.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 69.55.
Resistance level: 69.55, 70.45
Support level: 68.55, 67.30
GOLD
GOLD, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, further confirmation must be attained such as a breakout above the resistance level 1203.30 or the support level 1196.00 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1203.30, 1207.80
Support level: 1196.00, 1191.10
180918 Daily Analysis
18 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull feeds on new Trump tariff.
Greenback managed to recover its strength by 0.09% to 94.10 at early Asian trading session after the announcement of 10% tariff imposed on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods by US President Donald Trump and threatened to impose another tariff on $267 billion of additional China imports if China were to take retaliatory action against US. The imposed of tariff had since boosted the dollar as it indicates a better economy for the US with emerging domestic market opportunity as well as increased revenue on import taxes. Besides that, Trump had mentioned in his Twitter yesterday that he was ready to impose tariff on trading partners’ imports if they were to go against the US or if they fail to make a fair deal. In other news, pound sterling continues to edge up by 0.02% to 1.3150 after comment from EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier where talks between the European Union and Britain regarding Brexit is going well and being conducted in good cooperation. As the Brexit is coming close to its deadline, investors are reacting towards any sign of news regarding Brexit, thus making the pair dependent on the current situation of Brexit.
As for the commodities market, crude oil continues to fall by 0.20% to $68.39 per barrel after the announcement of 10% tariff imposed on Chinese goods by US President Donald Trump which caused investors to worry on the impact it brings to the crude oil market. On the other hand, gold price also decreased by 0.21% $1198.65 per troy ouns as the dollar increased amid the tariff announcement.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:15 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 1.1% | 0.6% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3145. Recent price action and MACD which display a bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1690. MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.1690.
Resistance level: 1.1690, 1.1730
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1615
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 111.95. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 111.95.
Resistance level: 111.95, 112.20
Support level: 111.65, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 68.55. MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 67.30.
Resistance level: 68.55, 69.55
Support level: 67.30, 66.80
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1198.95. Recent price action and MACD which display a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1196.00.
Resistance level: 1198.95, 1203.00
Support level: 1196.00, 1191.10
140918 Daily Analysis
14 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback falls amid poor economy data.
The greenback fell by 0.08% to 94.05 after the poor releasement of economic data Consumer Price Index yesterday. The economic data of CPI with an actual reading of 0.1% was lower than the forecasted data of 0.2% and since caused the dollar to plunge as investors lost confidence towards the dollar and seek for a much safer asset. The fall of the dollar was capped by US President Donald Trump where he stated in Twitter that he was not pressured to carry out a trade deal with China yesterday but the sentiment was insufficient to keep the dollar from falling as investors are still worried with the outcome of the ongoing trade war between the US and China. In other news, Euro was seen edging up after the decision of Euro Central Bank to lower the forecasts for Europe’s economic growth for this year and next year. During the ECB Press Conference yesterday, ECB stated that it expects to reduce the $2.9 trillion bond-buying program A.K.A. quantitative easing by this year end. EURUSD increased by 0.04% to 1.1695 as of writing.
As for the commodities market, crude oil continues to fall by 0.12% to $68.69 per barrel after OPEC announced its output which had since increased from 420,000 barrel a day to 32.63 million barrel a day for the month of August. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.30% to $1204.90 per troy ouns after the dollar fells amid poor CPI economic data yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.6% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3085. Recent price action and MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3145.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the support level 1.1690. MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1.1690.
Resistance level: 1.1730, 1.1760
Support level: 1.1690, 1.1645
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 111.95. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.65.
Resistance level: 111.95, 112.20
Support level: 111.65, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 68.55. MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum and formation of a golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 69.55.
Resistance level: 69.55, 70.45
Support level: 68.55 67.30
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1203.00. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1207.80.
Resistance level: 1207.80, 1212.15
Support level: 1203.00, 1198.95
130918 Daily Analysis
13 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar plunges amid poor economy data.
Dollar index fell by 0.45% to 94.30 at early Asian trading session amid yesterday’s releasement of US economic data, Producer Price Index for the month of August. The PPI data which acts as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation where it accounts for the majority of overall inflation had an actual reading of -0.1% which is 0.3% less than the forecasted data of 0.2%. Besides that, the fall of the dollar was also boosted by the easing of trade tensions between the US and China when the Trump administration invited China for a new round of trade talks. Investors who were uncertain about the outcome of the trade talks start to lose confidence towards the dollar and started to find a much safer asset. In other news, the Aussie dollar strengthened by 0.29% to 0.7185 at early Asian trading session amid the weakening of the dollar as well as the positive sentiment from their releasement of economic data, Employment Change. The Employment Change for the month of August had an actual reading of 44.0K which is higher than the forecasted data of 16.5K. The data had since boosted the value of the Aussie dollar and the confidence of investors towards it.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price plunged by 0.60% to $69.85 per barrel after climbing up to a week high of $71.25 per barrel amid the release of the Crude Oil Inventories report. The actual data had a reading of -5.296M which is much lower than the forecasted data of -1.300M. The decreased in inventories lead to an increased in price for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.58% to 1204.50 since yesterday after the dollar was seen plunging due to poor PPI data reading.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3070. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bearish signal and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3020.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3095
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2970
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel between the resistance level 1.1645 and the support level 1.1615. Due to the lack of signals from the MACD suggest to wait until further clear signal appears such as a breakout above or below the resistance and support level before entering market.
Resistance level: 1.1645, 1.1690
Support level: 1.1615, 1.1565
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.25. MACD which display a bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.65.
Resistance level: 111.65, 111.95
Support level: 111.25, 110.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 70.45. Recent price movement and MACD which display a bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 69.55.
Resistance level: 70.45, 71.25
Support level: 69.55, 68.55
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1207.80. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1203.00.
Resistance level: 1207.80, 1212.15
Support level: 1203.00, 1198.95
120918 Daily Analysis
12 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar falls amid easing of NAFTA talks.
Dollar index fell by 0.08% to 94.70 at early Asian trading session amid US President Donald Trump’s comment on the ongoing NAFTA negotiations whereby he stated that both sides are operating in good faith with the trade talks going well and Canada is ready to make a deal. The dollar traded lower amid sources from Canada stated that Ottawa was ready to offer the US limited access to the Canadian dairy market as a concession in negotiations in remaking the NAFTA. Besides that, the greenback’s fall was also due to the increasing tension of trade wars between the US and China as President Donald Trump stated last Friday that he was ready to impose additional $267 billion on Chinese goods. Investors had since lost faith and confidence towards the dollar, being afraid that the trade war will not end well for either countries. In other news, the Canada dollar was seen stronger amid the smoother NAFTA negotiations whereby Canada had offer US access to Canadian dairy market as concession in negotiations. The stronger Loonie was also due to comments from US President Donald Trump regarding that the trade talks are going well and Canada was ready to make a deal. The pair USDCAD increased by 0.03% to 1.3070 as of writing.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.26% to $70.00 per barrel as the crude inventories are falling. Besides that, the price of crude oil was also pushed up by the Hurricane Florence which is expected to cause shortages in fuel. On the other hand, gold price continues to fall by 0.33% to $1194.65 per troy ounce as the dollar is still maintaining its strength amid the NAFTA negotiations and trade war with China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.302M | -0.805M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3020. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3085
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2945
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1605. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1580.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1625
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1530
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.60 while currently breaking below the support level 111.45. Recent price action and MACD which display a bearish momentum and formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.20.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.60
Support level: 111.20, 110.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 69.80. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 70.30.
Resistance level: 70.30, 71.05
Support level: 69.80, 69.10
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1196.00. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1191.10.
Resistance level: 1196.00, 1198.95
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.80
100918 Weekly Analysis
10 September 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: September 10 – 14
Market Review (Forex): September 3 – September 7
US Dollar
The US dollar had undergone appreciation amid the release of economic data, Non-farm Payrolls which created positive sentiment for the dollar and boosted investors’ confidence towards the greenback. The dollar index edged up by 0.33% while closing the price at 95.34 last Friday.
The NFP data economy released last Friday for the month of August had an actual reading of 201K, beating the forecasted data of 191K which reflected a healthy job market in the US. Furthermore, the wage growth of the country as reported from the Average Hourly Earnings was performing better as well with the actual reading of 2.9% which is 0.2% higher than the forecasted of 2.7%. The strengthening of the dollar was bolstered by positive sentiments from Friday’s economic data as investors changed their position to a buy for the dollar.
Overall, the dollar regained its strength against its rivals while trade tensions between the US and China grew with the US having the upper hand in creating confidence for investors, bolstered by strong economic data from US NFP and also the Average Hourly Earnings.
USD/JPY
USDJPY pair rose 0.25% to 111.03 during late Friday trading session.
EUR/USD
EURUSD had dropped 0.59% to 1.1553 during last week Friday session.
GBP/USD
GBPUSD had decreased 0.10% to 1.2916 during late Friday New York session. The single currency had regained its strength right before the release of NFP data and now faces a loss while possibly to continue as the turmoil in Brexit grows with former foreign minister Boris Johnson criticized Prime Minister Theresa May Brexit deal as a ‘suicide vest’.
Market Review (Commodities): September 3 – September 7
GOLD
Gold price plunged as dollar strengthened amid positive economic data of NFP and Average Hourly Earnings of the US last Friday. The yellow metal closed last week markets at a loss of 0.36% to 1195.86 a troy ounce.
The gold price was seen falling as the greenback started gaining a bullish momentum from the positive sentiment amid the release of economic data NFP which has since boosting investors’ confidence towards the dollar.
Crude Oil
The price of crude oil continues fall on Friday despite the strong release of US Crude Oil Inventories data. The commodity price plunged 0.16% to 68.17 per barrel during last Friday’s session.
According to EIA report on Crude Oil Inventories, the actual data of -4.302M was much lower than the forecasted data of -1.294M where it indicates the reduction of crude oil supplies should generally increase the price of crude oil. But despite the positive data reading, the oil price continues to fall amid the increasing tension of the trade war between the US and China where an additional tariff will be imposed onto $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. This has worsened the confidence of investors towards the crude oil as China is one of the major markets for the US oil, and fears grew as China might find another supplier for the crude oil as the trade war continues.
Overall, crude oil price can be seen falling for the past week as lack of positive sentiment boosted the fear of investors towards the commodity. Until the tension of trade wars eases off, the commodity may have a hard time in regaining its strengths.
Weekly Outlook: September 10 – 14
For the week ahead, investors will remain focus on the release of various economics data especially UK GDP which is scheduled on this week. The data which is an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. Thus, investor will keep an eye for the release to attain further signals regards of the pound sterling momentum.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: September 10 – 14
| Monday, September 10 |
Data GBP – GDP (MoM) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, September 11 |
Data GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jul) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Aug)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, September 12 |
Data USD – PPI (MoM) (Aug) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
|
| Thursday, September 13 |
Data AUD – Employment Change (Aug) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) EUR – Deposit Facility Rate EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
Events EUR – ECB Press Conference
|
|
Friday, September 14
|
Data CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) RUB – Interest Rate Decision (Sep) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
Events GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: September 10 – 14
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 95.20. MACD which display the start of a bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 93.85.
Resistance level: 95.20, 96.60
Support level: 93.85, 92.95
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2775. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3305
Support level: 1.2775, 1.2625
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.85. Recent price action and MACD which display a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.25.
Resistance level: 111.85, 113.15
Support level: 110.25, 108.30
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1530. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1735, 1.1925
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1330
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1216.85. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1182.30.
Resistance level: 1216.85, 1240.60
Support level: 1182.30, 1158.80
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 70.15. Recent price movement and MACD which display bearish momentum and formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 66.20.
Resistance level: 70.15, 71.70
Support level: 66.20, 64.30
070918 Daily Analysis
07 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback weakening amid poor economy data.
Dollar index fell by 0.02% to 94.94 at early Asian trading session amid yesterday’s releasement of US economic data of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for the month of August which measures the nonfarm sector employment change. The actual data of 163K was lower than the forecasted data of 188K which had since contribute to weighing on the dollar as uncertainties towards the dollar grew among investors. Although there was a better data reading from the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with an actual reading of 58.5 compared to the forecasted data of 57.0, it was insufficient to create a positive sentiment for the dollar as tensions and conflicts of the trade war between the US and China grew stronger. In other news, Canadian dollar also known as Loonie was seen regaining its strength after BoC Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said that a breakdown in the trade talks between the US and Canada would not prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. Furthermore, Mexican officials stated that the NAFTA will not come into an agreement until Canada rejoins the talk and enter into the same agreement with the US. This has since created a positive sentiment for Canada hence boosting investors’ confidence towards loonie. The pair is currently trading lower by 0.09% at 1.3130 as of writing.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price continues to fall by 0.16% to $67.75 per barrel despite a positive data in the Crude Oil Inventories where the actual data of -4.302M beats the forecasted data of -1.294M. Although the data shows a much lesser supply of crude oil, it wasn’t strong enough to create a positive sentiment for the market as investors are focusing more on the trade wars between the US and China where US will be imposing another round of tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods. On the other hand, gold price edged up by 0.20% to $1202.15 per troy ounce as the dollar continues to weaken, providing a boost to the gold price.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17.00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Aug) | 2.7% | 2.7% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Nonfarm Payroll (Aug) | 157K | 191K | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Net Change in Employment | 54.1K | 5.0K | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate | 5.8% | 5.9% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2945. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a bearish signal suggest the pair to extent its losses after a breakthrough from the support level 1.2910.
Resistance level: 1.2945, 1.2975
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2870
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakthrough below the support level 1.1625. MACD which display a persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1580.
Resistance level: 1.1625, 1.1650
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1530
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 110.45. MACD which shows a starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 110.70.
Resistance level: 110.70, 110.90
Support level: 110.45, 110.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 67.75. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate a starting bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 68.30.
Resistance level: 68.30, 69.10
Support level: 67.75, 67.25
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1198.95. Recent price action and MACD which signals a bullish bias suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1203.00.
Resistance level: 1203.00, 1207.80
Support level: 1198.95, 1196.00
060918 Daily Analysis
06 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar plunges as light shed on Brexit news.
The dollar plunged by 0.19% to 94.10 after the breaking news update on Brexit whereby both the UK and Germany had come into agreement to let go crucial demands over Brexit in order for it to be executed properly. The fall of the greenback is caused by the lifting of investors’ fears regarding Britain leaving the European Union without any comprehensive agreement. Reports by Reuters stated that the fall in dollar is only temporary, as global trade tensions are growing and the dollar will be able to benefit from emerging markets funds outflow while regaining the position for safe-haven asset. In other news, the sterling was seen surging by 0.12% to 1.2920 after breaking news on the agreement between the UK And Germany to drop few points in Brexit negotiations to ease the trade deal. The pair was traded lower for the past two weeks as the tension of Brexit deals grew as the deadline draw closer while a ‘no deal’ Brexit was still in order. After the agreement yesterday, possibilities for further easing on the trade agreements can be anticipated as the deal is reaching its deadline soon and both the market for EU and UK will undergo large changes as well.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.12% to $68.55 per barrel as emerging market woes on sentiment while conflict in trade war between the US and China grew nearer following the possibilities of additional tariff on $200 billion Chinese goods. On the other hand, gold price edged by 0.22% to $1199.00 per troy ounce as the dollar index continues to tumble down.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) | 219K | 188K | – |
| 22.00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 55.7 | 57.0 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.566M | -1.294M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakthrough above the previous resistance level 1.2910. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2945.
Resistance level: 1.2945, 1.2975
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2870
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1625. Recent price movement and MACD which signal a persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakthrough above the resistance level 1.1650.
Resistance level: 1.1650, 1.1695
Support level: 1.1625, 1.1580
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 111.45. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.20.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.65
Support level 111.20, 110.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 69.10. MACD which illustrate the starting of bullish momentum and formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 69.10.
Resistance level: 69.10, 69.80
Support level: 68.35, 67.75
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakthrough above the resistance level 1198.95. Recent price movement and MACD which display persistent bullish signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1203.00.
Resistance level: 1203.00, 1207.80
Support level: 1198.95, 1196.00
050918 Daily Analysis
05 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback weakens despite strong PMI data.
The dollar was trading lower by 0.08% at 95.22 at early Asian trading session after hitting a two-week high after the releasement of US Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI data where the actual data of 61.3 hit a 14-year high, exceeding the forecasted data of 57.6. A higher reading of the PMI indicates the expansion in manufacturing of US which represents 12% of total economy which has since boosted the confidence of investors towards the greenback. Besides that, the fall in dollar was also due to increasing global tension caused by the trade conflict between the US and China where President Donald Trump is planning to impose additional tariffs on $200 billion of China imports as soon as Thursday this week which has since kept the investors worry. In other news, the pound was traded 0.11% higher at 1.2866 as of writing despite the weak economic data of UK PMI where it highlighted the growing weakness in the construction sector with an actual reading of 52.9 which is much lower than the forecasted reading of 55. Despite the poor performance, UK has since performed better with the weakening of the dollar supporting its rebound.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price edged up by 0.11% to $69.42 per barrel after tumbling down from a one-and-half month high since July as the anticipated tropical storm that will affect the US Gulf coast production has less impact than expected. Besides that, gold price also increased by 0.24% to $1194.10 per troy ounce as the dollar weakens.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:15 CAD BoC Interest Rate Statement
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Service PMI (Aug) | 54.4 | 54.4 | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2870. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest that the pair may extend its gains once it breakout above the resistance level 1.2870.
Resistance level: 1.2870, 1.2910
Support level: 1.2840, 1.2790
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1580. Recent price movement and MACD which signal a persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.6230.
Resistance level: 1.6230, 1.1650
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1530
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.60. MACD which shows the starting of bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.45.
Resistance level: 111.60, 111.70
Support level 111.45, 111.20
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 69.80. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate a persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 69.10
Resistance level: 69.80, 70.30
Support level: 69.10, 68.35
GOLD
GOLD, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1191.10. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1196.00.
Resistance level: 1196.00, 1198.95
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.80
270818 Weekly Analysis
27 August 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 27 – 31
Market Review (Forex): August 20 – August 24
US Dollar
The US Dollar remained pressured by the bears after a dovish note on Fed Chairman in his speech last Friday. The dollar index has slipped 0.52% while closing the price at 95.04 last Friday.
During the central bank’s annual gathering Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the Jackson Hole last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized in his speech that gradual interest rate hikes would be conditioned on the continued strength of the U.S. economy and labor market. With his speech, he has identified two risk which is “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating”. Investors took Powell’s speech as a more dovish stance, which it seemed to rule out the need for a more aggressive tightening as he suggested a lack of inflationary pressure and put the caveat for further gradual increases in interest rates on a continuation of current economic strength and a strong labor market. Thus, boosting further selling pressure and extending its losses.
Overall, the dollar strength remains weak against it basket of six major rivals as the attractiveness for the dollar has been weaken with the ongoing intensified trade war between US and China and the recent dovish stance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in rate hike which already proved successful to soften investors’ confidence.
USD/JPY
USDJPY pair slipped 0.03% to 111.22 during late Friday trading session.
EUR/USD
EURUSD has rose 0.72% to 1.1622 during last week Friday session.
GBP/USD
GBPUSD has gained 0.27% to 1.2844 during late Friday New York session. Despite with the ongoing uncertainty in Brexit, pound sterling has obtained some relief after the dollar weakness after Powell’s speech last Friday. However, investors remain focused as fears of no deal Brexit continues to weigh in.
Market Review (Commodities): August 20 – August 24
GOLD
Gold price surge amid dollar has extended its losses amid Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish note from his speech in the annual Economic Symposium last Friday. The yellow metal has closed the market last week by gaining 1.75% to 1205.80 a troy ounce.
The gold price has surged amid dollar strength last week which recently weaken significantly by Powell’s speech which is more towards dovish stance. With Powell highlighting the risk and condition for rate hike, the stance has prompted some aggressive USD selling in the past hour or so after the speech.
Crude Oil
The price of crude oil continues to rise on Friday despite the weaker release of Baker Hughes Oil Rig report release last week. The commodity price has surged 0.95% to $ 68.36 a barrel during last Friday’s session.
According to the data released by Bakers Hughes which measure the drilling activity in the US, the number of oil rigs are has decreased from previous data with the reading of 860 against previous reading 869. However, the price of the commodity remains driven higher as overall sentiment still subjected toward demand for oil outstrips supply and upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran have also continue supported the price.
Overall, crude oil risk sentiment remains solid as overall risk appetite for the commodity continue towards the possibility of demand which could exceed supply following the recent fundamentals in crude oil.
Weekly Outlook: August 27 – 31
For the week ahead, investors will remain focus on the release of various economics data especially US GDP which is scheduled on this week. The data which is an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. Thus, investor will keep an eye for the release to attain further signals regards of the dollar momentum.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 27 – 31
| Monday, August 27 |
Data EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, August 28 |
Data USD – CB Consumers Confidence (Aug) CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events GBP – Inflation Report Hearings
|
| Wednesday, August 29 |
Data USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, August 30 |
Data EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Aug) EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Aug) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Continuous Jobless Claims CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, August 3
|
Data CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Aug) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Aug) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
Events N/A
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: August 27 – 31
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.00. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish signal with death cross formation suggest the pair may extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 95.00.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.50
Support level: 95.00, 93.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the descending trend line. Price action and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair to extend it gains towards the resistance level 1.3005 after it breaks above the trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3210
Support level: 1.2785, 1.2600
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bullish signal with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.05.
Resistance level: 112.05, 113.05
Support level: 110.95, 109.40
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1525. Recent price action and MAC which illustrate clear bullish signal with the golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1760.
Resistance level: 1.1760, 1.1925
Support level: 1.1525, 1.1315
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1172.50. Price action and MACD which display bullish bias with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the commodity may extend its gains towards resistance level 1220.00.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1284.50
Support level: 1172.50, 1123.50
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 68.85. Although recent price action and MACD which display bullish momentum with the golden cross formation, a breakout above the resistance level 68.85 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 68.85, 72.55
Support level: 64.20, 59.75
240818 Daily Analysis
24 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rose amid release of positive job data.
Index dollar continue extending its gain following the release of recent jobs data. According to the US Department of Labor, the Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless Gains has receded, with Continues Jobless Claims reading of 1.727 million against forecast of 1.731 million while another reading of 210K against 215K for Initial Jobless Claims. The drop in the data has hinted a stable labor market in the current US, therefore provide further boost for the already strong dollar. Dollar rose 0.06% to 95.50 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD slumped 0.05% to 1.2805 at the time of writing amid UK has prepared for a worst-case scenario of a no deal Brexit. CNBC reports that the UK Brexit Department has proposed a document with contingency plan in Brexit case if the discussion of trade agreement with UK and EU went south. Thus, creating further no deal confidence in the market and weakening the pound sterling further.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices have retreat 0.02% to $68.00 a barrel following with the latest US – China salvo. With the US recently fired a new shot where it has imposed 25% tariffs in 16 billion worth of Chinese goods and China also confirmed it will retaliate soon. With the current state, the market fears that a full potential trade war between the U.S. and China will slow the growth of the global economy and curb energy consumption. On the other hand, gold price has slip 0.07% to $ 1185.31 per troy ounce following the dollar strength that is boosted by a variety of encouraging factors such as positive economic data as well as expectations of rising interest rates
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.30 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 2.3% | 2.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) | 0.8% | -0.5% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD. H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2835. Although MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum, however recent price action and fundamental side which mostly subjected to bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2740.
Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2740, 1.2665
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1530. Recent price action and MACD which display diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains in accordance with its major trend towards the resistance level 1.1580.
Resistance level: 1.1580, 1.1625
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1485
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 111.10. MACD which diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.90
Support level: 111.10, 110.75
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 68.05. Price action and formation of golden cross pattern in MA lines suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 68.75.
Resistance level: 68.75, 69.25
Support level: 68.05, 67.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: The price of gold was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1185.00. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggest the commodity to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 1192.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1198.00
Support level: 1185.00, 1177.00
230818 Daily Analysis
23 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebound from lows caused by political turmoil.
Index dollar has rebound from its lows after a sell-off that reacts to political turmoil that sparked on yesterday. According to the reports from CNBC, former US lawyer for President Donald Trump, Michael Cohen has pleaded guilty in New York court for break the campaign finance law with “candidate” and also added that his main goal is to influence the presidential election 2016. Speaking to the news agency, lawyer Lanny Davis and lawyer Michael Cohen have said that his client regretted what they had done with Donald Trump and stated that Cohan had information about the Russian conspiracy. Therefore, the market has reacted negatively towards the release of the news. The dollar index has recovered 0.15% to 95.19 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDCAD has gain 0.35% to 1.3041 following the release of Canada Retail Sales yesterday. According to Statistics Canada, retail sales has slumped -0.2% against market forecast of 0.1%. Thus, the reading has showed that the economy in Canada has slowdown which may affect the prospect for a rate hike, therefore weakening the Loonie.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices have rose 0.15% to $95.19 a barrel following the release of an upbeat Crude Oil Inventories yesterday. Energy Information Administration have reported that the crude inventories have unexpected drop 5.836m bpd, higher than market forecast which the reading only -1.497, thus boosting momentum for the commodity. On the other hand, gold prices have risen by 0.40% to $ 1192.25 per troy ounce following the dollar strength that is supported by the bullish investor sentiment provided by a long term expectation rate hike.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
10.45 AUD RBA Assist Boulton Speaks
19.30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 56.9 | 56.5 | – |
| 16.00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 55.1 | 55.1 | – |
| 22.00 | USD – New Home Sales (Mom) (Jul) | 631K | 643K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower follow recent retracement from the resistance level 1.2905. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2835.
Resistance level: 1.2905,1.2970
Support level: 1.2835, 1.2735
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1580. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1580, 1.1625
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1485
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 110.75. Recent price action and MACD which continue to illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.10, 111.45
Support level: 110.75, 110.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 67.90. MACD which illustrate bearish signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its bearish momentum towards the support level 67.20.
Resistance level: 67.90, 68.75
Support level: 67.20, 66.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1192.00. Price action and MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1185.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1198.00
Support level: 1185.00, 1177.00
210818 Daily Analysis
21 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar fell amid Donald Trump criticize on rate hike.
The dollar index has continued its decline after the US President Donald Trump’s statement which criticizing the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to the Reuters’s interview with the US President yesterday, Donald Trump has expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the interest rate hike plan. He has stated that the U.S. central bank could do more to assist him in stimulate the economy while at the same time he also accuses China and Europe of manipulating their respective currencies. The statement has sparked anxiety with the influence of US President Donald Trump in the Fed that could have led to a plan change in interest rate hikes. The dollar index has slipped 0.38% to 95.40 as of writing. Meanwhile, EURUSD has dropped 0.05% to 1.2736 following the turmoil in Turkey’s which is worsening. According to reports from Bloomberg, both credit rating agencies Standard & Poors, and Moodys have reduce Turkey’s sovereign credit rating on Friday due to the ongoing crisis in the country. In addition, market observers also remain focused on the developments after a report on shots was launched at the U.S. embassy. in the Turkish capital on Monday.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices have rose 0.08% to $ 65.26 a barrel following reports that China will remain it trading ties with Iran for crude oil. China has confirmed that the country is will continue to trade with Iran with the purchase of massive crude oil demand despite US efforts to persuade China to stop purchasing Iranian Oil. On the other hand, gold prices have risen by 0.24% to $ 1192.25 per troy ounce following the dollar weakness which is supported by the recovery of China Yuan amid new talks on trade between the US and China as well as statements from US President Donald Trump recently.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun) | 1.2% | 0.8% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent breakout below the support level 1.2810. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2855.
Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2810, 1.2735
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1520. Price action and MACD which indicates clear and ongoing bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1520.
Resistance level: 1.1520, 1.1550
Support level: 1.1485, 1.1435
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.75. MACD which display diminished bearish signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.45
Support level: 109.75, 109.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil remains traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 65.60. Due to the lack of momentum in market and also lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appears such as breakout above the resistance level 65.60 or support level 64.90 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 65.60, 66.30
Support level: 64.90, 64.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1192.00. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish bias suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1198.00
Resistance level: 1198.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1192.00, 1185.00
200818 Weekly Analysis
20 August 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 20 – 24
Market Review (Forex): August 13 – August 17
US Dollar
US Dollar has continued its downfall following the latest release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which produce weak results. The dollar index has fall 0.53% while closing the price at 95.98 last week.
According to the University of Michigan which survey the personal confidence of consumers in economic activity, the index has proved the confidence among consumers for the month of August have dropped with the reading of 95.3 against market forecast of 98.0. Adding to the downward momentum in the greenback, the dollar upside potential has been limited by the recovery of Turkey and China Yuan which have bolstered most currency market against the dollar. To limit the Lira from falling, President Turkey Tayyip Erdogan has launch a economic action plan last week which have eased the market concern and made a recovery for Lira. In addition, the concerns around the US-China trade dispute has also been decreasing since Chinese officials announced a visit to the US in order to resume the trade talks.
Overall, the dollar strength has tumbled against it major rivals and the risk appetite for the dollar has decreased with the ongoing recovery of Turkey and also easing concerns with China and US renew trade talks that have continued to bolster the China Yuan and most markets against the dollar.
USD/JPY
USDJPY pair dropped 0.36% to 110.47 during late Friday trading session.
EUR/USD
EURUSD has slip 1.01% to 1.1407 against the US Dollar. With the macroeconomic release of CPI in eurozone that is in line with the expectations, the data have added more support to the EUR dollar in addition with the recovery of the Lira.
GBP/USD
GBPUSD has gained 0.28% to 1.2746 during late Friday New York session.
Market Review (Commodities): August 13 – August 17
Crude Oil
The price of crude oil rose on Friday as followed with US sanctions on Iranian oil which triggered concern for supply shortage last week. The commodity price has advance by 1.55% to $ 67.61 a barrel during last Friday’s session.
Last week, the price of crude oil has surged following with the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday raised its estimate of world oil demand growth next year to 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd. Besides that, the IEA also warned that upcoming oil sanctions against Iran could bring turmoil to the market which the U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil are expected in early November and could increase the potential of a global energy supply shortage. Furthermore, the price remains to hold its gains as the Bakers Hughes data, a leading indicator which measure the drilling activity in US also increased by the number of 10 which the reading is 869, thus improve further risk appetite for the black oil.
Overall, the sentiment for the commodity was subjected towards bullish after it driven higher in the past few months as demand for oil outstrips supply.
GOLD
Gold prices was recently recovered amid dollar has gave up some of its earlier week gains amid recovery in Turkey and also a negative slew of economic data. The yellow metal price has closed the market last week by gaining 0.90% to $ 1,184.20 a troy ounce.
The gold price has rebound amid dollar that have been weakened by the latest release of economic data last Friday where a slumped data has hinted the lack of confidence among consumers in the current economy. In addition, China has recently confirmed to send a trade representative to refresh a new round trade talks for a better trade deal which have eased concerns.
Weekly Outlook: August 20 – 24
For the week ahead, investors will remain focus on the release of various economics data and also speeches, especially on Friday where Jerome Powell will make his first appearance as Fed chairman at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The conference will be closely monitored for clues to the monetary policy direction of some of the world’s most important central bank.
For crude oil traders, they will place their attention over inventories data which is scheduled to commence on Wednesday to obtain further signals with regards to their approach taken to tackle imminent supply shortage.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 20 – 24
| Monday, August 20 |
Data EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jul)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks AUD – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
|
| Tuesday, August 21 |
Data NZD – Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2)
Events CrudeOIL – OPEC Meeting
|
| Wednesday, August 22 |
Data CAD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) USD – Existing Home Sales (Jul) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events GBP – Inflation Report Hearings USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
| Thursday, August 23 |
Data EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) USD – New Home Sales (Jul)
Events EUR – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting USD – Jackson Hole Synopsium
|
|
Friday, August 24
|
Data NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Jul) JPY – National CPI (MoM) EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: August 20 – August 24
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.6. MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to resume its technical correction towards the support level 95.00.
Resistance level: 96.60, 97.50
Support level: 95.00, 93.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.2785. Although MACD which display diminished bearish momentum with starting formation of golden cross, a breakout above the current resistance level 1.2785 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.3005
Support level: 1.2600, 1.2385
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 110.95. Price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.45.
Resistance level: 110.95, 112.05
Support level: 109.40, 108.30
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1315. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bullish signal with starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1525.
Resistance level: 1.1525, 1.1760
Support level: 1.1315, 1.1105
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level 1209.00. MACD which display bullish signal suggest the pair may experience a short-term technical correction towards back the current resistance level 1209.00 before it may resume its major trend.
Resistance level: 1209.05, 1295.00
Support level: 1130.00, 1053.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 64.20. Although MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum, a breakout below the support level 64.20 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 68.85, 72.55
Support level: 64.20, 59.75
170818 Daily Analysis
17 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar subdued amid mixed economic data release.
The dollar index has retreat following the release of mixed economic data last night. From economic factors, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index released yesterday had provide a bleak result with 11.9 against market expectations of 22.00. However, economic data for housing has improved where the Building Permi for July has increased by 1.311 million compared to the forecast reading of 1.310 million. However, sentiment in dollars remain subject to major headlines in the US conflict with countries in the world especially China where it has recently confirmed to continue trade talks with the US. Investors will remain focus their attention on US next move to determine its trend further. The dollar index has dropped by 0.13% to 96.37 as of writing. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has slipped 0.05% to 1.2719 at the time of writing following the release of inflation data CPI that met expectations overnight. Based on the data released by National Statistics in the UK, the rate of change in prices for consumer goods remained unchanged with a reading of 0.0% that is in line with economist forecasts. But the data could not attract bullish momentum long-term where sentiment in sterling pound as a whole is still subjected to fears in the Brexit plan which could not reach any agreement between the UK and the EU.
In the commodity market, the price of crude oil has increased 0.04% to $65.42 a barrel following with confirmations from the US and China to begin new discussions to resolve conflicts between two countries that could provide optimistic views on crude demand. On the other hand, the price of gold has rebounded by 0.30% to $1176.90 per troy ounce after yesterday sell-off due to a booming dollar with good economic data recently and also optimistic views on US and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15.30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speak
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17.00 | EUR – CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2695. Recent price action and MACD which display starting signal of bullish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2735.
Resistance level: 1.2735, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2665
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1365. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate signals that is remain subjected to bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1440.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1365, 1.1300
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 111.10. Price action and MACD which display starting bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.75.
Resistance level: 111.10, 111.45
Support level: 110.75, 110.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 65.35. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate clear bullish momentum suggest the commodity could be extend its gains towards the resistance level 65.80
Resistance level: 65.80, 66.30
Support level: 65.35, 64.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: The price of gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the trend line and currently testing the resistance level 1177.00. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1177.00.
Resistance level: 1177.00, 1185.00
Support level: 1166.00, 1155.00