Daily Analysis

27 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

New Zealand Dollar surged following the RBNZ rate statement.

New Zealand Dollar surged significantly over the backdrop of hawkish statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday. According to its monetary policy statement, the Monetary Policy Committee agreed to maintain the current stimulatory level of monetary settings in order to achieve its inflation and employment objectives. In fact, they keep its interest rate at 0.25% while

Maintaining the Large-Scale Asset Purchase and Funding for Lending programmed unchanged. Besides, the MPC reiterated that the global economic outlook has continued to improve, with ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus underpinning the recovery. The economics of the New Zealand is benefited by the rise of commodity prices in global, which spurring positive prospect for the New Zealand’s export profit. Indeed, the MPC also claimed the aggregate level of employment has also proved resilient, while fiscal spending continues to support domestic economic activity. As of writing, NZD/USD surged 0.04% to 0.7276.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.05% to $66.10 per barrel as of writing following the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories had notched down significantly from the previous reading of -0.426M to -1.662M, better than the market forecast at -1.050M. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.05% to $1,895.90 per troy ounces as of writing amid the rising US Treasury yield had insinuated the appeal for the US Dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 90.10. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 90.10, 90.70

Support level: 89.55, 89.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4115. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.4130, 1.4335

Support level: 1.4115, 1.4000

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2235. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2165.

Resistance level: 1.2235, 1.2340

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65

Support level: 108.55, 108.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7780. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7715.

Resistance level: 0.7780, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7715, 0.7685

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7300. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7240.

Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7360

Support level: 0.7240, 0.7155

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2040. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2265.

Resistance level: 1.2265, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2040, 1.1840

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8950. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9155

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8875

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 66.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 66.50, 67.80

Support level: 64.85, 63.60

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1876.45. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1923.10, 1958.95

Support level: 1876.45, 1829.85

26 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro lingered over the high level amid mixed economic data.

The Euro was traded within a range while hovered in high level following the European region released mixed economic data on yesterday. According to ifo Institute for Economic Research, Germany Ifo Business Climate Index had increased significantly from the previous reading of 96.6 to 99.2, confounding market forecast for a reading of up to 98.2. Though, the gains experienced by the Euro was limited over the backdrop of bearish economic data from Germany region. The Statistisches Bundesamt reported that the Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last quarter came in at only -1.8%, missing the market forecast at -1.7%. On the Covid-19 pandemic front, as for now market participants remained optimism toward the vaccination progress in the European region, which dialled up the market optimism toward the economic momentum in European. According to Reuters, the European Union expects to have received more than a billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines by the end of September. Indeed, the document shows the EU is confident of having enough vaccines to immunise its entire eligible population by September, well beyond the initial goal of inoculating 70% of the adult population by end the of summer. As of writing, EUR/USD appreciated by 0.03% to 1.2250.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price extends its gains 0.15% to $66.10 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged higher amid positive prospect of the Covid-19 vaccine development had spurred market demand on this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.26% to $1904.00 per troy ounces as of writing as institutional investors have shift their portfolio toward safe-haven gold in order to hedge against the future inflation risk.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 89.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 89.25.

Resistance level: 89.70, 90.45

Support level: 89.25, 88.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 1.4105. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.4205.

Resistance level: 1.4205, 1.4285

Support level: 1.4105, 1.4010

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2260. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.2260.

Resistance level: 1.2260, 1.2290

Support level: 1.2225, 1.2175

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75

Support level: 108.45, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7805. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7805.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7860

Support level: 0.7760, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7280. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7330.

Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7395

Support level: 0.7280, 0.7225

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.2030. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.8940. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.8990, 0.9045

Support level: 0.8940, 0.8880

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat near the resistance level 66.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower towards the support level 64.25.

Resistance level: 66.60, 67.85

Support level: 64.25, 62.35

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1909.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1909.00, 1928.25

Support level: 1887.60, 1863.25

26 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar slumped on bearish economic outlook.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs extend its losses over the backdrop of the string of bearish crucial economic data from the U.S. region, which dialled down the market optimism toward the economic progression in the United States while spurring selloff on the US Dollar. According to Conference Board, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence notched down from the preliminary reading of 117.5 to 117.2, missing the economist forecast at 119.2. Meanwhile, Census Bureau reported that the U.S. New Home Sales had declined significantly from the previous reading of 917K to 863K, missing the market forecast at 970K. Besides, the US Dollar received further bearish momentum following the U.S. Treasury yield fell as market participants speculated that the Federal Reserve will still maintain its easing monetary policy plan despite current inflationary forces. Nonetheless, as for now investors would continue to scrutinize the updates with regards of the Covid-19 development as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy plan in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the currency. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.20% to 89.65.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.14% to $66.00 per barrel as of writing following the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -0.439M, worse than the market forecast at -1.279M. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.05% to $1,899.00 per troy ounces amid weakening US Dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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11:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 89.55. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 90.10, 90.70

Support level: 89.55, 89.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4130. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.4130, 1.4335

Support level: 1.4130, 1.4000

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2260. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2260, 1.2340

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 108.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65

Support level: 108.55, 108.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7780. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7715.

Resistance level: 0.7780, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7715, 0.7685

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7240. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7300

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7110

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2040. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term amid technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2265, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2055, 1.1840

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8950. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9155

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8875

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 66.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 66.50, 67.80

Support level: 64.85, 63.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1886.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1921.30.

Resistance level: 1921.30, 1943.50

Support level: 1886.95, 1847.20

25 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie surged amid upbeat economic data.

The Australian Dollar surged over the backdrop of upbeat economic data from International Merchandise Trade Australia. The statistics mostly contains preliminary estimates of international merchandise trade, includes breakdowns of imports, exports, source and destination countries. According to the data, the overall exportation of the Australia remained resilient while the exports of goods for the month of April 2021 had increased $13 million to #35,952 million. The imports of goods in April 2021 declined $1,896m to $25,811m. A higher level of exports would enhance the trade surplus in the country, which prompting a high level of output from the country’s factories and industrial facilities, as well as a greater number of people that are being employed. The majority of export in Australia was mainly driven by its major trade partner United States, Germany and Malaysia. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the Australia dollar was limited amid the resurgence of Covid-19 in Australia region, which prompting the authorities to reimpose its Covid-19 restriction in Australia’s second-largest city in Melbourne in order to combat the pandemic. As of writing, AUD/USD appreciated by 0.08% to 0.7757.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.27% to $66.20 per barrel as of writing. The oil price surged as hopes of an early return of oil exporter Iran to international crude markets had diminished. According to Reuters, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken claimed that Iran currently had no indication to comply with nuclear commitments, which raising the tensions between U.S. and Iran. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.05% to $1879.95 per troy ounces as of writing amid depreciation of US Dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 89.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 90.45, 91.25

Support level: 89.70, 89.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.4105. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.4205.

Resistance level: 1.4205, 1.4285

Support level: 1.4105, 1.4010

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2230. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2290

Support level: 1.2175, 1.2130

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses in short term towards the support level 108.45.

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75

Support level: 108.45, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7860

Support level: 0.7700, 0.7655

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7225. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.7225.

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7065

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1.2030. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 0.8950. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9020, 0.9080

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8880

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently near the resistance level 66.60. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 66.60, 67.85

Support level: 64.25, 62.35

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1887.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1863.25.

Resistance level: 1887.60, 1909.22

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.00

25 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar hovered two-years low amid fears upon inflation risk.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs hovered near two-year lows as investors anxiously awaited a crucial US inflation data this week in order to gauge the likelihood monetary policy in future. A high reading of core inflation data would likely lower the value for the US Dollar while prompting investors to shift their portfolio toward other currencies. Nonetheless, since the US economy had continued to make rapid progress toward the Federal Reserve’s goals, market participants have to start pricing a slightly more hawkish statement from Federal Reserve going forward while anticipating higher U.S. interest rates coming when the U.S. in order to combat inflation risk. Many economists highlighted the important for the committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its long-run goals while maintaining its inflation at stable rate. Though, the overall statement from the Federal Reserve remained vague recently, hence investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of further economic data as well as Federal Reserve’s statement to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.20% to 89.85.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $66.00 per barrel as of writing as the rapid Covid-19 vaccination progress had spurred positive prospect for the resolution of the Covid-19. According to latest data, the new cases have declined in recent weeks and test positivity rate has fallen under 2.5% compared to 36% last month in India. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.05% to $1880.35 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 89.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 90.50, 91.30

Support level: 89.65, 89.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4130. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.4130, 1.4335

Support level: 1.4130, 1.4000

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2165. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2240.

Resistance level: 1.2240, 1.2340

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently near the support level at 108.60. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65

Support level: 108.55, 108.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7715. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7780.

Resistance level: 0.7780, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7715, 0.7685

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7155. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7235.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7300

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7110

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2040. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term amid technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2265, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2055, 1.1840

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8965. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9155

Support level: 0.8965, 0.8875

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 64.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 66.50.

Resistance level: 66.50, 67.80

Support level: 64.85, 63.60

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1882.90. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1882.90, 1921.60

Support level: 1836.35, 1797.20

24 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar gains on upbeat data.

During late Asian session, the dollar which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have rose following recent upbeat U.S manufacturing data. According to Markit Economics, business condition in the manufacturing sector as represented by Manufacturing PMI have rose to 61.5, better than market expectation of 60.2. On top of that, U.S Services PMI also improved to 70.1 against market expectation of 64.5. The data have reinforced market views that the economy will continue to grow at a faster pace in the U.S for the next few years, thus support the demand for the greenback. On the other hand, positive comments from Fed member also help provide extra boost. Fed member Patrick Harker stated that the Fed should start negotiations on volume reductions bond purchases earlier than expected. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.03% to 90.03.

In the commodities market, crude oil price extends gains and rose 0.47% to $64.14 per barrel at the time of writing following storm forecast in the gulf. According to U.S National Hurricane, a low-pressure system located over the western Gulf of Mexico with winds of 30-35 miles per hour and has a 60% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours. The potential storm could shut down oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.11% to $1884.61 a troy ounce at the time of writing following rising dollar strength.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 89.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 90.45.

Resistance level: 90.45, 91.30

Support level: 89.80 89.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.4205. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.4100.

Resistance level: 1.4205, 1.4290

Support level: 1.4100, 1.4010

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat after recent breakout below the previous support level 1.2180. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2130.

Resistance level: 1.2180, 1.2230

Support level: 1.2130, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 108.45.

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75

Support level: 108.45, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7700. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7805

Support level: 0.7700, 0.7655

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7145. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7065

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear direction and momentum, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear direction and momentum, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.9020, 0.9080

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8880

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 64.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction towards the support level 62.35.

Resistance level: 64.25, 66.60

Support level: 62.35, 60.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1887.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1887.60, 1909.20

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.00

24 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Pound remained bullish amid positive Covid-19 vaccine development.

The overall trend for the GBP/USD pair remained bullish on last week amid the positive prospect for the Covid vaccination in United Kingdom had dialled up the market optimism toward the economic progression. Nonetheless, the Pound Sterling retraced from its recent high due to technical correction. On the economic front, the UK economy is bouncing back strongly from months of lockdown slump and the onslaught of Brexit, with key economic indicators surging as restriction are eased following the Covid-19 cases in UK region declined significantly. According to Office for National Statistics, U.K. Retail Sales for last month had notched up significantly from the previous reading of 5.1% to 9.2%, exceeding the market forecast at 4.5%. Similarly, U.K. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and U.K. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) had both came in at 66.1 and 61.8, which also better than the market forecast at 60.7 and 60.1 respectively. According to Reuters, the UK Central Bank forecast that the economy would grow by 7.25% this year after slumping by nearly 10% in 2020. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.04% to 1.4145.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.17% to $63.75 per troy ounces as of writing. The oil price edged higher following the Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company claimed that the oil demand has risen to 95 million per days while forecasting the oil demand will continue to increase until 106 million bpd by 2030 following the resolution of Covid-19. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.10% to $1881.25 per troy ounces as of writing amid the fears of inflation risk in future, prompting some investors to shift their portfolio into safe-haven commodity in order to hedge against the inflation risk.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 89.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 90.50.

Resistance level: 90.50, 91.30

Support level: 89.65, 89.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.4130. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.4130, 1.4335

Support level: 1.4130, 1.4000

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2165. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2240, 1.2295

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 108.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward resistance level at 109.20.

Resistance level: 109.20, 109.65

Support level: 108.55, 108.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7715. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7780, 0.7815

Support level: 0.7715, 0.7685

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7155. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7300

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7110

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2055. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term amid technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2265, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2055, 1.1840

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.8965. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9155

Support level: 0.8965, 0.8875

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 63.35. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 64.45.

Resistance level: 64.45, 66.30

Support level: 61.95, 60.65

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1869.80. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1907.95, 1949.60

Support level: 1869.80, 1841.65

21 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro extend gains following recovery optimism.

During late Asian session, the Euro which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have continue to extend its gains as market remains optimistic towards economic recovery in the long run. According to data, the number of COVID-19 cases have seen a drop of 60% in weekly cases. With Europe’s vaccination campaign continue at full force and is seeing better results, government also slowly relaxed social restrictions and reopen the economy. According to reports, an agreement has been reached to introduce an EU-wide COVID travel pass for the summer season. The pass would allow vaccinated individuals to travel to EU without any checks and quarantine. At the time of writing, EUR/USD rose 0.07% to 1.2229.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.09% to $62.05 per barrel at the time of writing following possible return of Iranian oil supply. According to reports, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that the sanctions on oil, shipping, petrochemicals, insurance and the central bank had been dealt with in the talks. While the success was not guaranteed, it still raises concerns of potential increase of crude oil supply in the future. On the other hand, gold price remains steady and edge higher 0.11% to $1873.32 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 89.80. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 89.25.

Resistance level: 89.80, 90.45

Support level: 89.25, 88.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.4150. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.4235.

Resistance level: 1.4235, 1.4380

Support level: 1.4150, 1.4020

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2230. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2290

Support level: 1.2180, 1.2130

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 109.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 108.45.

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75

Support level: 108.45, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7760. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7860

Support level: 0.7760, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7145.

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7065

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2030. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2135.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.8950. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9020, 0.9080.

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8880.

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 62.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 60.75.

Resistance level: 62.35, 64.25

Support level: 60.75, 58.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1877.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1863.25.

Resistance level: 1877.00, 1894.55

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.05

21 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

US dollar slumps back down.

Greenback retraced from its previous high levels as investors digested Federal Reserve signals with regards to monetary policy tightening. As of writing, the dollar index was down by 0.02% to 89.89 during Asian trading session. From the meeting minutes, several Fed officials commented to discuss with regards to tapering its bond purchasing program if US economy recovers substantially from the pandemic. However, investors realized that such action would require a significant timeframe as recent economic data from the US shows a rather mediocre recovery. For the month of May, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index slumped from 50.2 to 31.5, significantly lower than forecast of 43.0. The depreciation in manufacturing activity arises from the difficulty of hiring new workers after Philadelphia raises its total number of working hours. In addition, the shortage of raw materials due to coronavirus pandemic has also led to a lower manufacturing activity in the region.

In the commodities market, crude oil price slump more than 5% on yesterday to $61.98 per barrel. According to SCMP, both Israel and Gaza have agreed to ceasefire as of 2AM this morning, diminishing the risk of oil supply disruption from the region. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.06% to $1,875.84 a troy ounce due to diminishing tensions in between Israel and Gaza.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was lower following a retracement near 90.20. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower after closing below 89.70.

Resistance level: 90.00, 90.20

Support level: 89.70, 89.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a rebound from 1.4105. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.4255, 1.4345

Support level: 1.4180, 1.4105

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a rebound from 1.2170. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above 1.2230.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2170, 1.2125

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 109.00, 109.25

Support level: 108.85, 108.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from 0.7700. MACD which illustrate bullish suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7850

Support level: 0.7755, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from 0.7145. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7190, 0.7145

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.2080, 1.2180

Support level: 1.2010, 1.1900

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which shows the formation of bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.8985, 0.9000

Support level: 0.8960, 0.8940

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was higher following a rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 63.25, 64.70

Support level: 62.10, 60.95

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following a retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1880.00, 1895.00

Support level: 1863.25, 1845.00

19 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

New Zealand Kiwi rose on New Zealand Budget speech.

During late Asian session, the New Zealand dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have pick up bid after New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson unveiled the annual 2021 budget early Thursday. According to reports, New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Robertson stated that the long-term effects of pandemic not as severe as previously thought while releasing the annual budget for 2021. The key financial statement upwardly revised the GDP forecast from its Half Year Economic Forecast Update (HYEFU) while also expecting a gradual reduction in the fiscal deficit. He forecast GDP for 2021 will reach 2.9%. At the time of writing, NZD/USD rose 0.06% to 0.7171.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.05% to $63.44 a troy ounce as of writing on the backdrop of rising coronavirus cases and U.S stockpiles. In India, almost two-thirds of people tested in Indian show exposure to the coronavirus, suggesting a spiraling spread of the virus as the daily death toll rose to a record 4,529. On top of that, data also showed that U.S stockpiles have increased. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.03% to 1875.75 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar strength.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 89.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 90.45.

Resistance level: 90.45, 91.30

Support level: 89.80, 89.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.4100. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.4100.

Resistance level: 1.4165, 1.4215

Support level: 1.4100, 1.4025

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.2180. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2130.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2290

Support level: 1.2180, 1.2130

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 109.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.75.

Resistance level: 109.75, 110.45

Support level: 109.05, 108.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7760. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7700.

Resistance level: 0.7760, 0.7805

Support level: 0.7700, 0.7655

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7145. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7065

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2135. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9020. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9080.

Resistance level: 0.9080, 0.9135

Support level: 0.9020, 0.8950

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 64.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 62.35.

Resistance level: 64.25, 66.60

Support level: 62.35, 60.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1877.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1877.00, 1894.55

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.00

20 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Fed to discuss tapering soon.

Greenback rebounds sharply from its lower levels following the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes earlier today. According to the minutes for the month of April, several Federal Reserve officials has suggested to discuss tapering their current bond purchasing program over the backdrop of a strong economic upturn in the United States. However, it is worth noting that the suggestion is given before the release of April’s Nonfarm Payrolls report which shows the least addition of jobs into the market. Several officials commented that the total amount of bond purchases that were being made should be tapered off in order to avoid exceedingly high inflationary pressure in the near future. However, Fed official James Bullard commented on yesterday that the case for taper discussion is far too early and they would need more time to monitor the economy to ensure stability. Likewise, Bullard also commented that their projection towards the economy would become clearer after healthcare crisis in the US have been resolved. As of writing, the US dollar notched up 0.02% to 90.11 during Asian trading session.

For commodities, crude oil price slumped 0.04% to $68.35 per barrel. Oil futures received bearish pressure following a significant increase of coronavirus cases in the Asian region which may dampen the outlook for oil demand. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.05% to $1,868.40 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was higher following a rebound near 89.70. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 90.25, 90.45

Support level: 90.00, 89.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a retracement from 1.4180. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 1.4105.

Resistance level: 1.4180, 1.4255

Support level: 1.4105, 1.4025

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following a retrace from 1.2230. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2170.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2170, 1.2125

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above 109.25.

Resistance level: 109.25, 109.45

Support level: 109.00, 108.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 0.7805. MACD which illustrate bearish suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7755, 0.7805

Support level: 0.7700, 0.7655

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 0.7270. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7190, 0.7240

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7110

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.2180, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2080, 1.2010

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from the lower level. MACD which shows the formation of bullish signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after closing above 0.9045.

Resistance level: 0.9045, 0.9070

Support level: 0.9025, 0.9000

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was higher following a rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 64.40, 65.50

Support level: 63.25, 62.20

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following a retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extended losses after closing below 1863.25.

Resistance level: 1880.00, 1895.00

Support level: 1863.25, 1845.00

19 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro gains on easing lockdowns.

During late Asian session, the Euro which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs remain resilient and rose as COVID-19 cases in Europe continue to fell and prompt EU countries to ease lockdowns. According to the latest development, EU ambassadors are expected to sign off a plan to allow fully vaccinated individuals to fly to Europe without being required to undergo a Covid test or quarantine. Besides that, countries such as France and Germany also started to relaxed their lockdowns following COVID-19 cases fell below a key threshold. Market expected that such actions can help revive the momentum of economic recovery for the near term, thus boosting the demand for the Euro. At the time of writing, EUR/USD rose 0.10% to 1.2230.

In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.75% to $64.80 per barrel at the time of writing following concerns of Iranian supply return. The oil markets continue to be pressured following reported progress on talks between the United States and Iran to revive a deal limiting its nuclear program, which could lead to a lifting of sanctions and a resurgence of Iranian oil exports. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.09% to $1868.95 amid ongoing dollar weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (20^th)             USD                     FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 89.80. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 89.25.

Resistance level: 89.80, 90.45

Support level: 89.25, 88.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level 1.4165. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 1.4165.

Resistance level: 1.4280, 1.4395

Support level: 1.4165, 1.4100

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2230. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1.2180.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2290

Support level: 1.2180, 1.2130

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 109.05. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 108.45.

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.75

Support level: 108.45, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7805. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7760.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7860

Support level: 0.7760, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7725. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7225, 0.7145

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2030. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2135.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.8950. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9020, 0.9080

Support level: 0.8950, 0.8880

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 64.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 66.60, 67.85

Support level: 64.25, 62.35

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the support level 1863.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1877.00, 1894.55

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.00

19 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Market focus on FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Greenback continues to remain on its backfoot as investors awaits the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes to gauge its near-term trend direction. Previously, Federal Reserve officials reiterated their stance to preserve accommodative monetary policy for longer period of time until all aspects of economy stabilize and achieved its designated target. Likewise, some officials commented that they would require to monitor the current economic recovery momentum in the US to ensure smooth transition and reduces possibility of acting too early. Their comments contradict with market speculation whom are expecting Federal Reserve to tighten their policy earlier than expected due to recent uptick in inflation. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented that the US economy and its fundamentals are suffice to withstand inflationary pressure past 2% target in order to ensure its stability in the long run. On the other hand, euro extended its gains during Asian trading session after France and Germany announces to loosen restrictive measure over the backdrop of controlled coronavirus transmission. The measure may help to elevate economic recovery momentum in the mid-term and reduces the risk of recession. As of writing, dollar index was down 0.01% to 89.72 while EUR/USD was up 0.02% to 1.2223.

As for commodities, crude oil price ticked down 0.05% to $65.27 per barrel. Oil price was overtaken by bearish market following Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov’s suggestion towards Iran to rejoin the global denuclearization treaty in order to preserve peace. Such action may cancel US’s sanction upon Iran which may allow the country to export its oil to other regions. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.02% to $1,868.94 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (20^th)          USD                        FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was higher following a rebound near 89.70. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 90.00, 90.25

Support level: 89.70, 89.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout at 1.4180. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.4255, 1.4345

Support level: 1.4180, 1.4105

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2125. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2230, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2170, 1.2125

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 109.00, 109.25

Support level: 108.85, 108.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 0.7805. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7850

Support level: 0.7755, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 0.7270. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7190, 0.7145

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.2080, 1.2180

Support level: 1.2010, 1.1900

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from the lower level. MACD which shows the formation of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.8985, 0.9000

Support level: 0.8960, 0.8940

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which forms bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 65.50, 66.50

Support level: 64.40, 63.25

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout at the resistance level of 1863.25. However, MACD which illustrate bearish divergence signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1880.00, 1895.00

Support level: 1863.25, 1845.00

18 May 2021                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie rose on upbeat RBA minutes.

During late Asian session, the Australian dollar which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have rose after recently benefited from the RBA latest monetary policy meeting minutes. The central bank left its key rates at 0.1% unchanged for a fifth straight month and cites readiness to alter bond buying if required. According to the meeting minutes, the central bank would unlikely to increase interest rate before 2024. However, the central bank is turning down any plan of changes in yield curve. While there is no decision to whether extend current policies, a firm statement on yield curve change have help lifting some confidence, thus provide boost for the Australian dollar. At the time of writing, AUD/USD rose 0.35% to 0.7787.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $66.44 per barrel at the time of writing following optimism on economy reopening from countries such as UK and EU. The British economy have started to reopen, giving 65 million people a measure of freedom after a four-month COVID-19 lockdown. France and Spain have also relaxed restrictions, and Portugal and the Netherlands have opened up travel which could boost fuel demand. On the other hand, gold price jumps 0.17% to $1870.00 a troy ounce at the time of writing following dollar weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 90.45. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 89.70.

Resistance level: 90.45, 91.30

Support level: 89.70, 89.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.4165. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.4165.

Resistance level: 1.4165, 1.4280

Support level: 1.4100, 1.4025

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2130. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2180.

Resistance level: 1.2180, 1.2230

Support level: 1.2130, 1.2065

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 109.05. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 109.75, 110.45

Support level: 109.05, 108.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7805. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7860

Support level: 0.7760, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7225. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7280.

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7225, 0.7145

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2030. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2135, 1.2270

Support level: 1.2030, 1.1915

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9010. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.9080.

Resistance level: 0.9080, 0.9135

Support level: 0.9010, 0.8950

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 66.60. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 66.60.

Resistance level: 66.60, 67.85

Support level: 64.25, 62.35

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1863.25. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1877.00.

Resistance level: 1877.00, 1894.55

Support level: 1863.25, 1846.00

18 May 2021                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback wilts as sentiment sours.

US dollar extended its losses following the release of bearish economic data from last Friday. As of writing, the dollar index notched down 0.03% to 90.15 during Asian trading session. Last Friday, Retail Sales data for the month of April shows significant slump in terms of consumer spending despite government’s effort of introducing a new round of economic stimulus earlier this year. The data has dialed down market expectation for a speedy economic driver which may drive up inflation in a short period of time. On yesterday, Fed official Raphael Bostic commented that the Federal Reserve will monitor the economy and evaluate whether the current economic momentum is up to their expectations. Likewise, Bostic also emphasized that any changes in monetary policy would require substantial stabilization in terms of all aspect of economy which includes inflation and employment market. The signal delivered by Bostic has further cemented Federal Reserve previous view to keep loose monetary policy intact in order to provide ample support for economic recovery.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.15% to $66.27 per barrel. On yesterday, Israel has launched missile strikes towards the southern region of Gaza despite global calls for a halt in escalating tensions further. Rising tension in between Israel and Gaza may disrupt oil supply in the region which in return, provide support for global oil prices in short-term. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.01% to $1,865.97 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrated formation of bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 90.00.

Resistance level: 90.20, 90.45

Support level: 90.00, 89.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrated the formation of bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 1.4170.

Resistance level: 1.4170, 1.4240

Support level: 1.4100, 1.4020

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2125. MACD which illustrated the formation of bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.2175.

Resistance level: 1.2175, 1.2230

Support level: 1.2125, 1.2070

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.25. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the resistance level.

Resistance level: 109.25, 109.45

Support level: 109.00, 108.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrated upward momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7805, 0.7850

Support level: 0.7755, 0.7700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7190. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7190, 0.7145

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a breakout at the support level at 1.2080. MACD which illustrated bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.2010.

Resistance level: 1.2080, 1.2180

Support level: 1.2010, 1.1900

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from the lower level. MACD which shows the formation of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9045, 0.9065

Support level: 0.9025, 0.9000

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 66.50.

Resistance level: 66.50, 67.60

Support level: 65.50, 64.40

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout at the resistance level of 1863.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the direction of 1880.00.

Resistance level: 1880.00, 1895.00

Support level: 1863.25, 1845.00