1 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
US-Canada reaches NAFTA agreement.
US dollar slipped against the Canadian dollar on Monday after United States and Canada reached an agreement over a framework deal that would update the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) this morning. Pair of USD/CAD plunged 0.53% to 1.2841 during European trading sessions. According to sources with direct knowledge of the talks, both countries have reportedly reached consensus which involved offering more dairy access to US farmers as well as Canada agreeing to an arrangement that would cap automobile exports into United States. The agreement has sent bullish bets on the Canadian dollar after the currency being sold largely due to both countries prior inability to reached a common ground. On the other hand, the dollar index defends its position, up 0.07% to 94.78 while investors continue to monitor upcoming economic data from the United States for further signals.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.08% to $73.55 per barrel, ahead of US sanction against Iran, the third largest producer in OPEC which could dent global crude supplies. On the other hand, gold price extended losses by 0.29% to $1,188.61 a troy ounce following bullish rebound of the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
00:15 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53.7 | 53.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.8 | 52.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 58.5 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 61.3 | 60.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound and closure above 94.65. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum, towards the target at 1.2985.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2895, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following breakout from the support level near 1.1675. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 113.70. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the threshold of 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its towards the direction of 0.7200.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7200, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its towards the support level near 0.6600.
Resistance level: 0.6620, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6575
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply after breaking the strong support near 1.2900. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2750
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior rebound near the support of 0.9760. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9850
Support level: 0.9760, 0.9710
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking 73.55.
Resistance level: 73.55, 75.00
Support level: 71.35, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the trendline. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1184.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 1 – 5
| Monday, October 1 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, October 2 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, October 3 |
Data GBP – Services PMI (Sep) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
| Thursday, October 4 |
Data USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, October 5
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) CAD – Employment Change (Sep)
Events N/A
|