1 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
CAD shines as GDP exceeds expectation.
Greenback opened the week at a lower level this morning over-the-backdrop of bleak US economic data which were released last Friday. The dollar index which measures its strength against six major currencies depreciates by 0.03% to 94.63. In the economics’ front, US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index was flat for the month of August, underwhelming economist expectation for a growth of 0.1%. Similarly, University of Michigan reported a slight depreciation in US Consumer Sentiment, down to 100.1 versus expected reading of 100.5 for the month of September. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD extended its losses by 0.46% to $1.2851 during early Asian trading session. The Canadian dollar received higher demand after Gross Domestic Product for the month of July expands at a faster pace with 0.2% versus forecast of 0.1%.
As for commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.11% to $73.70 per barrel. Crude prices received some bearish pressure after US President Donald Trump was reportedly contacted Saudi Arabia’s King Salman last weekend and discussed efforts being made to ensure global oil market stability. The call came a day after Trump criticized OPEC for high oil prices and requests the cartel to boost their output. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.11% to $1,190.69 a troy ounce while higher prospect for a future US rate hike keeps limits the upside of the commodity.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
00:15 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53.7 | 53.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.8 | 52.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 58.5 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 61.3 | 60.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound and closure above 94.65. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum, towards the target at 1.2985.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2895, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following breakout from the support level near 1.1675. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 113.70. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the threshold of 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7200, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6620, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6575
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply after breaking the strong support near 1.2900. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2750
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior rebound near the support of 0.9760. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9850
Support level: 0.9760, 0.9710
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking 73.55.
Resistance level: 73.55, 75.00
Support level: 71.35, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the trendline. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1184.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 1 – 5
| Monday, October 1 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, October 2 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, October 3 |
Data GBP – Services PMI (Sep) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
| Thursday, October 4 |
Data USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, October 5
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) CAD – Employment Change (Sep)
Events N/A
|