1 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
CAD slumps as Fed appears less dovish.
Australian dollar rebounds from its lowest level in more than 8 months following the release of bullish economic data from its major trade partner China. According to Markit, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for the month of July came in at 49.9, slightly higher than forecasted reading of only 49.6. Recent data from China shows some signs of an economic momentum rebound which has eased market concerns over recessive risk in the region. Likewise, as Australia’s export economy is highly dependent on China, the bullish data has provided some bullish support upon Australian dollar. On the other hand, Canadian dollar was sold heavily on yesterday although it’s the economic data from the region fared better than economists’ forecast. For the month of May, Canadian’s Gross Domestic Product for the month of May came in at 0.2%, slightly higher than forecast of 0.1%. However, Canadian dollar failed to hold its gains after US Federal Reserve gave a less dovish statement with regards to future monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterates that they are far from kickstarting an easing cycle while the rate cut is an “insurance” in order to support overall growth momentum. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.10% to 0.6851 while USD/CAD appreciates by 0.12% to 1.3205.
As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.22% to $57.68 per barrel. Due to the lack of progress from US-China trade talk, traders begin to cut their bullish bets upon oil futures over fears for a possible negative downturn from both countries. Otherwise, gold price slumped 0.25% to $1,409.28 a troy ounce due to hawkish Fed and a stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
Tentative GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
19:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15.55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 43.1 | 43.1 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 46.4 | 46.4 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 48.0 | 47.7 | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 206K | 212K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.7 | 52.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after successfully close above the resistance level at 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.90
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2100. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2100.
Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2200
Support level: 1.2100, 1.1990
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1085. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1015.
Resistance level: 1.1085, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1015, 1.0985
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.20. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 109.55.
Resistance level: 109.55, 109.90
Support level: 109.20, 108.95
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6825, 0.6765
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6540. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6490
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3220. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3095
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9945. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully close its candle above the resistance level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9890, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 57.85. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 57.15.
Resistance level: 57.85, 58.90
Support level: 57.15, 55.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1415.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1402.95.
Resistance level: 1415.40, 1424.05
Support level: 1402.95, 1383.65