1 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD skids as China economy contracts further.
Aussie dollar retraced from its previous high over the backdrop of downbeat economic data from the region and China. As of writing, pairing of AUD/USD tumbled 0.28% to 0.7252. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Producer Price Index for the fourth quarter came in less than expected with only 0.5% versus forecast of 0.6%. A slight tick down in producer prices may derail current inflation level from achieving Reserve Bank of Australia’s target. Australian dollar was further pulled down after Caixin Manufacturing PMI contracts further to 48.3 versus previous reading of 49.7. The data accompanies a series of underwhelming reports from China which signals possible downturn in economic momentum. On the other hand, US dollar was up 0.03% to 95.26 against other major currencies. Greenback rebounds sharply from its previous low following optimistic housing data from yesterday while traders anticipate the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for tonight.
On the other hand, crude oil price depreciates by 0.54% to $53.53 per barrel. The commodity received large selloff after China releases downbeat manufacturing data this morning. A slowdown in manufacturing activity may decrease China’s demand for crude oil and thus, prolonging the global supply glut. Otherwise, gold price was down by 0.24% to $1,318.95 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 49.9 | 49.9 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 50.5 | 50.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 53.5 | – |
| Tentative | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.6% | 1.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | 312K | 165K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 3.9% | 3.9% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 54.3 | 54.2 | – |
| 02:00 (2nd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 862 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after successfully breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.50
Support level: 95.00, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3125. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards after successfully breaking the target of 1.3060.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3060, 1.2990
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1515. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1415.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1515
Support level: 1.1415, 1.1355
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 108.95. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the level of 108.95.
Resistance level: 108.95, 109.35
Support level: 108.25, 107.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 0.7275. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7360
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.6890.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6890, 0.6820
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3120. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 1.3175.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9920. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.9970.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9920, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 53.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further downward after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1321.20, 1332.00
Support level: 1313.80, 1305.40