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1 February 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

New Zealand unemployment climbs, Kiwi dollar falls afterward.

The Kiwi dollar which is traded as one of the major currencies globally slipped after a downbeat labor market report was released. According to the data from Statistics New Zealand, the unemployment rate climbs to 3.4%, which is well above the market expectations of 3.3%. The Employment Change data posted a reading of 0.2%, weaker than the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Both data showed that the labor market remains tight after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s aggressive rate hike. The New Zealand Finance Minister, Grant Roberson, mentioned that the country’s unemployment rate actually still remains low and the number of workers has increased significantly through the work visa and working holiday schemes to fill the local labor market. With that, the market participants would continue to eye on more economic data, in order to scrutinize the future monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As of writing, NZDUSD depreciated -0.275% to $0.6421.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated 0.14% to $78.98 per barrel as of writing amid EU country sanctions on Russian oil productions. Besides, the gold price depreciated -0.16% to $1942.05 per troy ounce as investors are waiting for more cues on the monetary policy from Fed.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

3:00                        USD                                      FOMC Statement

(2nd Feb)

3:00                        USD                                      FOMC Press Conference

(2nd Feb)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 47.0 47.0
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 46.7 46.7
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 9.2% 9.0%
21:15 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 235k 178k
23:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.4 48.0
23:00                 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) 10.458M 10.250M
23:30 USD – Crude Oil Inventories 0.533M 0.376M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 102.05, 103.20

Support level: 100.55, 99.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2415, 1.2535

Support level: 1.2265, 1.2120

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0890, 1.1040

Support level: 1.0740, 1.0600

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.60

Support level: 126.70, 123.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7140

Support level: 0.6955, 0.6870

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses.

Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6360, 0.6260

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level.  However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be trade higher as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3500

Support level: 1.3155, 1.2980

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses.

Resistance level: 0.9235, 0.9400

Support level: 0.9065, 0.8920

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains.

Resistance level: 81.50, 85.20

Support level: 77.25, 73.90

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains.

Resistance level: 1939.10, 1960.00

Support level: 1918.90, 1900.40