01 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull remains buoyant despite weak economic data.
Dollar index was traded fairly stronger against its major peers after it rose 0.18% to 90.61 as of writing. Despite the release of bearish economic data on yesterday, the greenback limits its losses as market participants’ sentiment turned optimistic on a more aggressive stance towards interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Overnight, the annual pace of growth in the U.S. surrendered its gains by 0.1% to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. In addition, the Chicago business barometer fell from 65.7 to 62.9 this month while pending home sales did not perform on par with economists’ forecast of a 0.4% increase, last stood at -4.7%. By 11pm (GMT+8) tonight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be attending the second part of testimonial whereby a question-and-answer (Q&A) session is to be expected. Any key point elaborated is likely to stir market volatility to a greater extent. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.68% to 106.61 following a “mini tapering” by Bank of Japan (BoJ) that reduces its 25-40Y JGBs purchase by a 10 billion Yen on yesterday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 11cents to $61.53 per barrel following an increase in U.S. crude inventories by 3 million barrels which is much greater than the expected 2.1 million barrels. Likewise, gold price was down 0.05% to $1315.90 a troy ounce as investors remained optimistic towards the Fed to adopt a more aggressive stance on its monetary policy this year.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
00:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.0% | 1.1% | -0.2% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 15:00 | GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 60.3 | 60.3 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 58.5 | 58.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 55.3 | 55.1 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 222K | 226K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) | 54.2 | 57.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3805. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3665.
Resistance level: 1.3805, 1.3915
Support level: 1.3665, 1.3455
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.2215. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level at 1.2165.
Resistance level: 1.2215, 1.2310
Support level: 1.2165, 1.2045
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.50. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 107.40, 108.50
Support level: 106.50, 105.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 61.80. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its downside bias towards the next support level at 60.20.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.20
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1317.90. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1305.85.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15