1 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar strong on data, risk appetite weighs on Yen.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was furthering its bullish momentum ahead of European trading session amid upbeat GDP data. Along the week, the safe-haven Japanese Yen was gaining against the dollar as market sentiment worsen following the denuclearization summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un which ended without an agreement. Besides that, political turmoil between India and Pakistan further supported risk aversion, causing investors to flee from dollar to safe-haven Yen. However, market sentiment was lifted after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testimony shed some light on US economy and yesterday’s upbeat GDP and Chicago PMI data supported investors’ risk appetite as they shift their investment back into the dollar market, sending the pair of USD/JPY to a 10-weeks high. As of writing, dollar index was gaining by 0.10% to 96.10 while pair of USD/JPY increased by 0.27% to 111.66.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was up by 0.25% to $57.40 per barrel amid upbeat China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. Recent downbeat manufacturing PMI data from China worsen the sentiment for crude oil market, indicating a possible decrease on oil demand. However, today’s Caixin data boosted investors’ confident on oil demand as they react to the decrease in inventories level. On the other hand, gold price edged lower by 0.05% to $1,313.10 a troy ounce following strengthening of dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 47.6 | 47.6 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) | -2K | -5K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.4% | 1.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 7.9% | 7.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) | 0.4% | -0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) | -0.1% | 0.0% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 56.6 | 55.5 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) | 55.5 | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 95.5 | 95.8 | – |
| 02:00
(2nd) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 853 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 96.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.45.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.90
Support level: 96.50, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3285. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with death cross formation suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3065
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1395. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.10.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7085. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085,0.7055
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6800. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6845, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6765
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3200. However, MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3200.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9975. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0085
Support level: 0.9975, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 57.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 55.75.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1315.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards back to the resistance level 1322.65.
Resistance level: 1315.05, 1322.65
Support level: 1302.90, 1287.05