1 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback reinvigorates, but for how long?
Greenback extended its recovery against other major peers following upbeat economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.07% to 96.06 against a basket of six major currencies. According to US Commerce Department, Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter came in at 2.6%, in line with economists’ forecast. In addition, Chicago PMI for last month rose to 64.7, topping out economists’ estimates of only 58.1. Both upbeat reports came in just a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an upbeat assessment with regards to US economy while revealing that the central bank may adjust its runoff on balance sheet policy later this year. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.66% to 1.3260 after hitting seven-months high on yesterday. The pair undergoes technical correction following a surge in US dollar over the backdrop of optimistic economic data. However, losses on pound sterling remains limited after UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that British lawmakers would get the chance to vote on a delay of Brexit if her withdrawal proposal gets voted down on March 12th.
In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 1.18% to $57.17 per barrel. The commodity finished higher since yesterday after US reported a slump in oil production by 56,000 bpd to 11.85 million barrels per day. The report posted its first production decline since May last year, hinting a slightly lower output for the time being. On the other hand, gold price extended its losses by 0.89% to $1,314.18 a troy ounce following stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 47.6 | 47.6 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) | -2K | -5K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.4% | 1.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 7.9% | 7.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) | 0.4% | -0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) | -0.1% | 0.0% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 56.6 | 55.5 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) | 55.5 | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 95.5 | 95.8 | – |
| 02:00
(2nd) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 853 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3170
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 111.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 111.45.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.7105. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to experience bearish momentum, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful breakout from below.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6735
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of downward channel. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3120.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9930. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9930
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance at 57.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further upwards after a successful close above 57.45.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55
Support level: 56.45, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior close below 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal may suggests its prices to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1303.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85