1 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Caixin flying colors, AUD rose further.
Australian dollar extended its gains during mid-Asian trading session following better-than-expected economic data from China. According to Caixin, its manufacturing PMI for the month of March ticked higher to 50.8, beating expected reading of 49.9 by a big margin. The return of the data to expansionary territory (50 and above) has dialed down market concern for a possible slowdown from one of the world’s largest economy. As China is one of the major trade partners of Australia, any economic news from the region could bring market momentum to the Australian dollar. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.39% to 0.7123. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY advanced up by 0.23% to 111.09. Japanese yen received some bearish pressure in the FX market following bearish economic release this morning. According to Tankan, both of its Large Manufacturers Index and Non-Manufacturers Index for first quarter missed economist expectation with 12 and 21 respectively. Both reports have further cemented dovish outlook from the Bank of Japan which may adopt further policy easing if necessary.
As for commodities market, crude oil price extended gains up 0.55% to $60.31 per barrel. Oil prices push higher since early Asian session following concerns for a possible supply shortage in the global market. Similarly, gold price rose 0.11% to $1,293.63 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:55 (2nd) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 44.7 | 44.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 52.0 | 51.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales | 0.9% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.40.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.20
Support level: 96.40, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3005. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.3070.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3005, 1.2965
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1220. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout the previous resistance level at 110.85. MACD which display bullish signals suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 111.40.
Resistance level: 111.40, 112.00
Support level: 110.85, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7120. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6820. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6865.
Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6895
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6775
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3345. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9965. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be trade lower in short term toward the support level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous channel top level at 60.25. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.25.
Resistance level: 61.25, 62.60
Support level: 60.25, 59.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1291.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1300.25.
Resistance level: 1300.25, 1308.15
Support level: 1291.80, 1283.70