01 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained strong amid upbeat data and Brexit uncertainties.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded lower by 0.03% to 96.76 at early Asian trading session after holding its grounds on Friday amid upbeat housing data and uncertainties arising from Brexit. During last Friday trading sessions, US New Home Sales data came in at 667K, beating economists’ expectations of 620K while indicating a higher housing sales activity as well as better economy outlook. Besides that, Friday’s announcement of higher than expected Michigan Consumer Sentiment with a reading of 98.4 against 97.8 also helped provide further support for the dollar. In other news, pair of GBP/USD fell by 0.10% to 1.3015 while remained pressured by Brexit deadlock. Prime Minister Theresa May faced a third-time defeat for the approval of her Brexit deal with the UK Parliament voting 388 against 286 during Last Friday’s Brexit vote. The UK is now under pressure of deciding whether to approve a Brexit deal before 12th April deadline, to crash out of the union without a deal or to request further delay to the Brexit deadline while remaining in the EU and participating in the next European Union general elections.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.48% to $60.46 per barrel amid positive sentiment surrounding the oil markets. Recent news supporting the oil market was US President Donald Trump’s tweet which urged OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to stop their production glut and bringing more supply to the market. Market’s initial reaction was dovish as investors fear that the tension between Trump and OPEC+ will disrupt the oil market, however the oil price recovered quickly after no signs was shown that OPEC+ will give in to Trump’s demand. Likewise, gold price was up by 0.09% to $1293.00 per troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:55 (2nd) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 44.7 | 44.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 52.0 | 51.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales | 0.9% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.2 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 96.80. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.15
Support level: 96.20, 95.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3065. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short-term towards the resistance level 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1215. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.40.
Resistance level: 111.40, 111.75
Support level: 110.95, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently retest near the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6815. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully close above the resistance level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6725
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3350. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.3460.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3295
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 0.9965 or below the support level 0.9910 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 63.10.
Resistance level: 63.10, 65.70
Support level: 60.20, 58.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1289.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 1299.15.
Resistance level: 1299.15, 1308.10
Support level: 1289.35, 1282.40