1 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar flat ahead of FOMC meeting, Kiwi tumbles.
Dollar index extend its losses for a third consecutive sessions against a basket of six major currency pairs on Tuesday despite higher than expected housing data and consumer confidence. According to US Conference Board, consumer confidence index came in at 129.2, exceeding forecasted value of 126.0 which signals strong confidence towards the economic activity. However, recent inflationary data had caused uncertainties in the market while waiting for today’s interest rate statement to obtain further confirmation. It is widely expected that the bank will keep their interest rate unchanged however market participants worry that recent weak inflation may lead to rate cuts by December this year. All in all, investors will still focus on today’s key manufacturing and ADP employment data to further gauge the movement of greenback before looking into Fed’s statement. In other news, this morning release of New Zealand’s employment change for the first quarter had dragged the Kiwi lower. According to Statistics New Zealand, the employment change data came in at -0.2%, much lower than the forecasted value of 0.5%. The data which signaled a poor labor market caused investors to sell the single currency. As of writing, dollar index was edged higher by 0.03% to 97.17 while pair of NZD/USD was down by 0.33% to 0.6648.
As for commodities, crude oil price fell 0.17% to $63.33 per barrel following the buildup in crude inventories. The oil market sentiment remained mixed amid political tensions the Venezuela and also fear of abandonment of OPEC’s glut cut after June. Recent reports showed that Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro is currently in a stand-off with opposition leader Juan Guaido which may possible lead to large-scale violence and affecting crudes supply. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.26% to $1,279.85 a troy ounce due to heightened risk appetite for profitable pound and euro market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Germany Labour Day
All Day Hong Kong Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (2nd) USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
04:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 55.1 | 53.2 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | 129K | 181K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 55.3 | 55.0 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.479M | 1.485M | – |
| 02:00 (2nd) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 97.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 97.55.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3015. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3190
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2960
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1215. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.45. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.80.
Resistance level: 111.80, 112.10
Support level: 111.45, 110.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 0.7050. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7085
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6950
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6640. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6640, 0.6585
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3395. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3395, 1.3430
Support level: 1.3345, 1.3295
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the resistance level 1.0200. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.0200.
Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 62.85.
Resistance level: 64.55, 66.30
Support level: 62.85, 61.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded lower while currently testing the support level 1280.45. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1280.45, 1271.80