01 June 2023 Afternoon Session Analysis
The euro fell after CPI in major countries cooled.
The pair of the euro against the greenback, fell after cpi in major countries showed cooled conditions and hint the European Bank (ECB) to pause its tightening monetary policy. Data released on Wednesday included French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and German CPI Data. The CPI in French slipped more than expected from 0.6% to -0.1%, as the market expects the reading slightly reduce to 0.4%. While the German CPI eased to -0.1% from 0.4% in the previous month’s reading, lower than market expectations of 0.6%. The euro finally lost its appeal to investors as the data eased pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten policy further. Moreover, French consumer spending fell to -1.0% from -0.8% the previous month. The data continues to plummet due to lower energy consumption and a further fall in food consumption, as household fall in purchasing power after the significant impact of the inflationary context. It is clear that the French economy will fall sharply as consumer spending is unlikely to contribute a positive reading to the GDP growth in the second quarter. This may also make the European Central Bank choose not to raise interest rates in the upcoming interest rate decision. As of writing, the EUR/USD edged up 0.01% to 1.0690.
In the commodities market, crude oil prices were traded up by 0.63% to $68.50 per barrel following the prior large surprise build in US crude stocks. Besides, gold prices ticked up by 0.14% to $1965.33 per troy ounce amid bets on the Fed pause in June.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 42.9 | 42.9 | – |
16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (May) | 46.9 | 46.9 | – |
17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 7.0% | 7.0% | – |
20:30 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) | 296K | 170K | – |
20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 235K | – |
22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | 47.1 | 47.0 | – |
23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -12.456M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its losses toward the support level at 103.75.
Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20
Support level: 103.75, 102.85
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergoes technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930
Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.
Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60
Support level: 138.15, 136.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6525.
Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6440, 0.6370
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.
Resistance level: 0.6050, 0.6120
Support level: 0.5980, 0.5885
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3590. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses towards the support level at 1.3515.
Resistance level: 1.3590, 1.3670
Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.
Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9285
Support level: 0.9090, 0.9005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level.
Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20
Support level: 67.00, 63.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1954.90.
Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10
Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15