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01 June 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

 

The euro fell after CPI in major countries cooled.

The pair of the euro against the greenback, fell after cpi in major countries showed cooled conditions and hint the European Bank (ECB) to pause its tightening monetary policy. Data released on Wednesday included French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and German CPI Data. The CPI in French slipped more than expected from 0.6% to -0.1%, as the market expects the reading slightly reduce to 0.4%. While the German CPI eased to -0.1% from 0.4% in the previous month’s reading, lower than market expectations of 0.6%. The euro finally lost its appeal to investors as the data eased pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten policy further. Moreover, French consumer spending fell to -1.0% from -0.8% the previous month. The data continues to plummet due to lower energy consumption and a further fall in food consumption, as household fall in purchasing power after the significant impact of the inflationary context. It is clear that the French economy will fall sharply as consumer spending is unlikely to contribute a positive reading to the GDP growth in the second quarter. This may also make the European Central Bank choose not to raise interest rates in the upcoming interest rate decision. As of writing, the EUR/USD edged up 0.01% to 1.0690.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were traded up by 0.63% to $68.50 per barrel following the prior large surprise build in US crude stocks. Besides, gold prices ticked up by 0.14% to $1965.33 per troy ounce amid bets on the Fed pause in June.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:30                     EUR                       ECB President Lagarde Speaks

19:30                     EUR                       ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:55 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) 42.9 42.9
16:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI (May) 46.9 46.9
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) 7.0% 7.0%
20:30 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) 296K 170K
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 229K 235K
22:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) 47.1 47.0
23:00 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -12.456M

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its losses toward the support level at 103.75.

 

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergoes technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.

 

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6525.

 

Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6440, 0.6370

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6050, 0.6120

Support level: 0.5980, 0.5885

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3590. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses towards the support level at 1.3515.

 

Resistance level: 1.3590, 1.3670

Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9285

Support level: 0.9090, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20

Support level: 67.00, 63.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1954.90.

 

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15