1 October 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound slump despite positive economic data.
Pound Sterling slump despite recent economic data from the region fared better than expected. According to Office for National Statistics, U.K Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 1.3%, exceeding the economist forecast of 1.2% for the second quarter. In addition, U.K. Business Investment notched up from -0.5% to -0.4% for the month of August, which is also higher than the economist forecast. In addition, Britain’s government on Monday dismissed opposition suggestions that Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a financial conflict of interest over Brexit after receiving donations from fund managers who may be shorting in Pound Sterling. However, such positive sentiment still unable to provide a bullish support on Pound Sterling, amid to bleak data on U.K. Current Account. In fact, investors would continue to scrutinize the clue from the Brexit latest update in order to gauge the movement of the currency. On the other hand, Japanese Yen surge amid to recent economic data performance exceed the expectation. According to Bank of Japan, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index exceed the forecast for a reading of 2, came in at 5 for the month of September. Higher than expected reading should deliver a positive economic prospect for the region, providing the bullish support toward Japanese Yen. In addition, risk appetite ebbed on caution about unstable global environment, spurring the demand for safe-havens such as Japanese Yen, says Bloomberg. As of writing, GBP/USD slump 0.04% to 1.2279, while USD/JPY rose 0.13% to 108.19.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.61% to $54.51 per barrel amid to lower output from U.S., Russia and OPEC, says Reuters. On the other hand, gold price depreciated by 0.33% to $1467.55 per troy ounces amid to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:45 (2nd) EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 43.5 | 41.1 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 47.4 | 47.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 49.1 | 50.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 47.4 | – | – |
| 04:30
(2nd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.400M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 99.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 98.85.
Resistance level: 99.25, 99.80
Support level: 98.85, 98.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2260. MACD However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.2385.
Resistance level: 1.2385, 1.2495
Support level: 1.2260, 1.2165
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0915. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0850.
Resistance level: 1.0915, 1.0965
Support level: 1.0850, 1.0770
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 108.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 108.35.
Resistance level: 108.35, 109.20
Support level: 107.55, 107.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6745, 0.6690
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6235. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6270, 0.6325
Support level: 0.6235, 0.6200
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from thre support level 1.3235. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3305.
Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3365
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0005. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095
Support level: 0.9940, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 55.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 55.30.
Resistance level: 55.30, 58.35
Support level: 53.00, 50.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1487.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1452.15.
Resistance level: 1487.35, 1512.75
Support level: 1452.15, 1413.85