2 February 2023 Morning Session Analysis
US Dollar dived following the Fed’s smaller hikes.
The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currencies slumped on Thursday after Fed’s Chairman acknowledged that the inflationary risk was easing. Earlier of the day, the US central bank decided to raise its interest rate by 25 basis point to 4.75%, which was the second consecutive lower rate hike after the four 75 basis point hikes in a row. In the Press Conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell claimed that there was a significant effects in bringing down inflation pressure, whereby hinting that Fed would likely to step back from its aggressive contractionary monetary policy in the March meeting. Though, it was noteworthy that the Fed might continue to increase its rates as they were committed to restore price stability, according to the speech of Fed in Press Conference. Thus, the likelihood of another rate hike might not be excluded. On the economic data front, a series of downbeat economic data has spurred further bearish momentum toward US Dollar. The data such as US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has disappointed market participants, which highlighting the side effects that driven by prior aggressive rate hike by Fed. As of writing, the Dollar Index dropped by 0.94% to 100.95.
In the commodity market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.79% to $77.04 per barrel as of writing following the smaller rate hike by Fed has offset the market concern upon recession. On the other hand, the gold price raised by 1.28% to $1951.04 per troy ounce as of writing over the weakening of US Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
21:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
21:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
22:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
23:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | 3.50% | 4.00% | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Feb) | 2.00% | 2.50% | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 2.75% | – | – |
| 21:15 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | 2.50% | 3.00% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 186K | 200K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 102.05, 103.20
Support level: 100.55, 99.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2415, 1.2535
Support level: 1.2265, 1.2120
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1040, 1.1165
Support level: 1.0890, 1.0740
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 130.35, 132.60
Support level: 126.70, 123.65
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.
Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7355
Support level: 0.7140, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains.
Resistance level: 0.6560, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6460, 0.6360
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3155, 1.2980
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses if successfully breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9235, 0.9400
Support level: 0.9065, 0.8920
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 77.25, 81.50
Support level: 73.90, 70.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains.
Resistance level: 1960.00, 1986.85
Support level: 1939.10, 1918.90