02 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull terminator: Trump’s tariff casted fears of trade war.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.41% to 90.24 following fears of trade war triggered by President Donald Trump’s statement to impose tariffs on commodity imports started next week. According to the U.S. president, a 25% tariff and a 10% tariff will be imposed on steel and aluminium imports respectively. The highly controversial move has casted fears that the U.S. main trading partners including China could take countermeasures. All in all, investors’ sentiment remained optimistic following President Fed Jerome Powell who reiterated yesterday during the second part of testimony that no evidence is seen on current economy that is overheating while an increase in wage growth was not significant. On the contrary, GBP/USD was traded steadily around key level $1.3775 while investors on-eyed towards speech by UK Prime Minister Theresa May regarding Brexit deal.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.4% to $61.15 per barrel following optimistic sentiment for a global oil surplus is coming to an end. In respective of that, the OPEC will be having its meeting with U.S. shale firms in Houston to discuss topics on taming a global oil glut. Likewise, gold price rose 0.06% to $1316.01 a troy ounce following fears of a global trade war,
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Jan) | -0.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 0.9% | 0.9% | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 0.7% | 0.8% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.9% | 0.9% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Feb) | 50.2 | 50.5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 95.7 | 98.9 | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 799 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3805. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to retest its previous low.
Resistance level: 1.3805, 1.3915
Support level: 1.3665, 1.3455
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2215. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.2310.
Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2215, 1.2165
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.10. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 106.50, 107.10
Support level: 106.10, 105.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 60.20. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 61.80.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.20
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1305.85. MACD signal line that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher if breakout at the 78.6 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15