02 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar bulls remain dominant despite weak Retail Sales.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major rival pairs was trader higher by 0.07% to 96.78 as of writing despite a soft Retail Sales data on Monday. According to US Census Bureau, sales activity in the US have slumped to -0.2%, weaker than market’ expectation with the reading of 0.4%. However, market remains bullish on dollar as a strong U.S manufacturing data help to keep a lid on the downside with the ISM manufacturing data came in stronger with the uptick to 55.3, beating expectations of 54.5. Besides that, recent positive developments in trade talk between U.S and China also continue to boost the greenback sentiment. On the other hand, GBPUSD have tumbled and fell 0.21% to 1.3072 as of writing following UK parliament rejects Brexit option once again in indicative voting. According to reports, UK secretary Stephen Barclay have stated that no solution has won a majority in today’s indicative voting on Brexit proposals. The Brexit deadlock highlights a higher chance for UK to exit without a deal on April 12 which already causing fears among investor and swerve away from the risk in the pound. Market will remain focus on the Brexit development and also economic release such as UK Markit Construction PMI to determine further sentiment for the pound sterling.
In the commodities market, crude oil price continue to skyrocket and rose 0.21% to $61.82 per barrel as of writing following Iran sanction threat and Venezuela shutdown. According to reports, one of the senior U.S official have stated that Washington is considering more sanction on Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before. Venezuela’s Jose crude export terminal has halted its operations following a prolonged blackout, decreasing further crude oil output which sending the already positive crude oil market into further frenzy. On the other hand, gold price slips further 0.09% to $1288.72 a troy ounce at the time of writing following a strong dollar which boosted by US-Sino developments and manufacturing data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Construction PMI | 49.5 | 49.8 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Durable Goods Order | -0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 4.30 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.930M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 96.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.05.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60
Support level: 96.70, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 1.3085. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2915
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 1.1215. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1175.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1260
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1125
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 111.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 110.95.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.00
Support level: 110.95, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.7115. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6775. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6775, 0.6730
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breaking below previous support level of 1.3350. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3285.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3285, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level of 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0010.
Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9980, 0.9950
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 61.85. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 61.85, 62.50
Support level: 61.15, 60.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1287.00. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a clearer rebound or breakout below from the support level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1294.50, 1299.50
Support level: 1287.00, 1279.70