2 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Neutral Fed reanimates dollar-bull.
Greenback rebounds from its prior low against other major currencies as US Federal Reserve expressed their patience in terms of monetary policy stance. The dollar index mends its losses by 0.14% to 97.32 as of writing. As widely expected, Fed kept their interest rate unchanged at 2.50% while reiterates to “wait-and-see” when it comes to monetary policy adjustments. Such signal portrays that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates for the time being. Likewise, although the central bank noted significant depreciation of inflation from their target of 2%, they continue to give positive outlook in terms of domestic consumer spending and business investments. Nevertheless, the Fed also noted that any adjustment to interest rates will be dependent on future economic conditions in terms of labor market, inflation and global financial developments. However, any substantial gains on the greenback were seemingly limited following the release of mixed data prior to Fed’s interest rate decision. Although ADP Nonfarm Employment Change exceed economist forecast with 275,000, ISM Manufacturing PMI experienced slight contraction from 55.3 to 52.8 for the month of April.
For commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.16% to $63.45 per barrel. Oil futures were sold after Energy Information Administration reported an increase in last week’s inventories by 9.9 million barrels, missing economist forecast for an increase of only 1.485 million barrels. The reading has substantially reduced bullish bets on the commodity as seemingly high stockpiles in the US may be due to higher production activity and lower market demand. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,277.56 a troy ounce due to lower expectation for an interest rate hike in the US which may increase the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day Japan Holiday
All Day China Labor Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR EU Economic Forecasts
19:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
19:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 44.5 | 44.5 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Apr) | 49.7 | 50.4 | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) | 2.0% | 1.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded higher following a close above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.85, 95.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at 1.3050. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1200. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1200.
Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the mid-level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00
Support level: 111.35, 111.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior close below 0.7035. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of support at 0.6990.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7070
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior close below 0.6630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of support level near 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD begins to form a bullish signal, a break above the triangle is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.0135. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.0205, 1.0320
Support level: 1.0135, 1.0095
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65
Support level: 63.15, 61.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1285.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below 1275.30.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00