2 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback rebounds, limited by rate cuts.
US dollar extended its gains on yesterday over the backdrop of bullish economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.71% to 96.32 against a basket of six major currencies. According to Institute for Supply Management, its Manufacturing PMI for the month of June inched up to 51.7, exceeding forecast of a slump to 51.0. The better-than-expected data has eased some concerns over imminent recession in the United States as recent data portrays slight diminishing economic momentum. Nonetheless, gains on the greenback remains limited as investors keep an eye over future economic data from the US such as ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls due later this week. Both data which provides more signals with regards to US employment market may catalyze higher market volatility as it may clarifies recent weakness in terms of jobs hiring. For the time being, Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that the possibility for a rate cut in July comes in at 100%. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD slumped 0.02% to 1.1285. Euro received bearish pressure after regional data from German such as Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Change missed economists’ forecast.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.44% to $58.77 per barrel. Oil prices depreciates slightly after OPEC announced to extend its supply cuts until March 2020, an announcement which has been fully priced in by the market participants. Subsequently, gold price rose 0.22% to $1,387.35 a troy ounce as imminent rate cut in the US lifts up the appeal of safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
22:05 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 1.25% | 1.00% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 48.6 | 49.3 | – |
| 04:30
(3rd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -7.550M | – | – |
Technical Analysis 
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 96.35. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up after closing above 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.2630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2630.
Resistance level: 1.2670, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2575
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1345, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the support of 108.25. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in the mid-term, towards the direction of 108.70.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.20
Support level: 108.25, 107.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support of 0.6960. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6960.
Resistance level: 0.7005, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bearish signals suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6655.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 58.85, 59.60
Support level: 57.25, 55.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after closing below the support of 1390.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1390.00, 1415.00
Support level: 1374.10, 1340.00