2 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar gains post FOMC meeting.
Dollar index rose during early Asian session after the Fed have provide a positive view on the world’s biggest economy. As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve has maintained its interest on 1.75 -2.00% rate and provide no surprise on its statement during yesterday meeting. However, the overall tone of stronger hawkish comments which stated economic growth is rising and the labor market in US continue to strengthen, hinted the market that it is continue on course to gradually hike rate. Global investors are now eyeing on the progress of imminent trade war as US officials have launch a new move proposing for a higher 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and it may deliver a huge impact for the market. Dollar index rose 0.06% to 94.47 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has slumped 0.14% to 1.3106 amid Brexit risk returns this week. Trades are focus on happenings this week as PM Theresa May is scheduled to meet with French President Macron on Friday, ahead of U.K.-EU negotiations that are set to resume in mid-August. Besides that, Investors will also shifting their attention to the BoE Interest Rate Decision which is expected for a rate hike today to determine further momentum for the pair.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has rebound 0.07% to $68.78 from continuous sell off which caused slump EIA crude stock change. According to the data from the Energy Information Association, the crude oil inventories have gone up to 3.803 million barrels during the week, more than initial forecast of a decrease of -2.794M. Investors will shift their attention towards the upcoming Bakers Hughes drilling report which is set on this week. On the other hand, the price of gold has rebound 0.25% to $1218.79 after its continuous losses by the strength of the dollar boosted by its positive data sentiment and also hawkish FOMC meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19.00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
19.30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP Construction PMI | 53.1 | 52.8 | – |
| 19.00 | BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 0.50 | 0.75 | – |
| 19.00 | BoE QE Total (August) | 435B | 435B | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently consolidate below the MA lines. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout below the trend line of rebound from the trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3170
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3070
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.1675. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair extend its losses towards the support level 1.1635.
Resistance level: 1.1715, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1675, 1.1635
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently retest the support level 111.55. Although MACD which display a diminished bearish bias, a bullish engulfing candle above the support level 111.55 is required to attain further confirmation
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.55, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was trade higher following prior rebound from the support level 67.45. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross suggest the pair may continue its technical correction for short term towards the resistance level 68.40
Resistance level: 68.40, 69.75
Support level: 67.45, 66.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel following a failed attempt for breakout below the support level 1218.00 and back to the sideway zone. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the resistance level 1226.00.
Resistance level: 1226.00, 1233.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1214.00