2 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Tariff strikes, Australia affected.
Australian dollar extended its losses although latest economic data portrays stronger consumer spending in the region. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, Retail Sales for the month of June came in at 0.4%, slightly higher than forecasted reading of 0.3%. However, Australian dollar failed to garner any bullish support after US President Donald Trump announced to impose another 10% tariff upon $300 billion worth of Chinese goods starting on 1st September. The announcement has deteriorated market optimism towards China which is one of the largest trade partners for Australia. A possible economic risk from the announcement of tariff ripples through the market, driving investors portfolio from risky assets into safe-havens such as Japanese yen and gold. For the time being, investors will continue to monitor further developments with regards to trade negotiation in between US and China in order to attain more market signals. On the other hand, pound sterling continues to extend its losses as speculation over a hard Brexit continue to gain its traction. With Brexit deadline approaches, many analyst postulates that UK PM Boris Johnson is running out of time to re-negotiate its Brexit terms with the EU, sparking higher chances for an exit without any substantial deal. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD was quoted down 0.03% to 0.6807 while GBP/USD extended its losses by 0.32% to 1.2094.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 1.03% to $54.95 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its prior low levels following a large slump on yesterday after Trump announced additional tariffs upon China. Tariffs may jeopardize trade activities in between US and China that may spark higher chances for recessive risk and thus reducing long-term demand for crude oil. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.91% to $1,431.19 a troy ounce as traders ended their profiting positions from yesterday’s appreciation in its price.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jul) | 43.1 | 46.0 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 224K | 164K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 90.1 | 90.3 | – |
| 01:00 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 776 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2100. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2100.
Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2100, 1.1990
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 1.1085, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0985
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout above the previous support level at 107.40. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.75.
Resistance level: 107.40, 107.75
Support level: 106.75, 106.05
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6825. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6765.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6765, 0.6695
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6540. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6490
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3220. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3095
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9890. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9890, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 54.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 57.15
Support level: 54.95, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1430.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1424.05.
Resistance level: 1431.45, 1445.60
Support level: 1424.05, 1415.40