2 November 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar spiked despite downbeat data.
The dollar index surged against a basket of six major currencies after slumping to one-week low amid disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI data been released yesterday. According to Institute of Supply Management, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index (PMI) came in at 57.7, lower than economist forecast level of 59.0. However, the demand is still remains moderately strong and backlogs orders has grown faster than they did in September, ISM emphasized. It depicts that the economic outlook of United States is still remain resilient. Meanwhile, investor eyes on busy day ahead, with key data scheduled for release out including October Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate along with US Average Hourly Earnings. NFP and US Average Hourly Earnings will remain as the key driver on the data front toward US Dollar. On the other hand, Sterling Pound rally on refreshed Brexit hopes yesterday as UK and EU has reached a milestone agreement where EU agreed to allow British financial services companies access to Europe market after Brexit. As of writing, Dollar index appreciated by 0.02% to 96.00 while GBP/USD tumbled 0.11% to 1.3000.
In the commodities market, crude oil notched up 0.35% to $63.70 per barrel amid US sanctions against Iran petroleum exports on this coming Sunday. Next, gold dipped 0.05% to $1232.40 per troy ounce amid Dollar recovered part of its losses.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 52.3 | 52.3 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 52.1 | 52.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) | 134K | 193K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Oct) | 63.3K | 12.7K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) | 2.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 01:00 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 875 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar Index was trade lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.15. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 96.15.
Resistance level: 96.15, 96.30
Support level: 95.95, 95.75
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3065
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2930
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.1410. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.1410.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1430
Support level: 1.1390, 1.1370
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 112.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 113.25.
Resistance level: 113.25, 113.55
Support level: 112.65, 112.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was trade higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7235. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7235.
Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7205, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6680. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6680.
Resistance level: 0.6680, 0.6710
Support level: 0.6640, 0.6610
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was trade lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3105
Support level: 1.3035, 1.2995
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.0010. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.0010.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0050
Support level: 1.0010, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 63.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 64.20.
Resistance level: 64.20, 64.85
Support level: 63.25, 62.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1230.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1237.65.
Resistance level: 1237.65, 1247.50
Support level: 1230.45, 1215.50