2 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar loses steam, sterling shines through.
Dollar-bulls vanished on yesterday after recent data showed that US manufacturing activity contracts extensively to half-year low. The dollar index mends its losses by 0.05% to 96.05 during Asian trading session. According to Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI for the month of October declined to a reading of 57.7 from 58.8, below economist expectation for a reading of 59.0. The data has notched its second monthly decline following softened consumption while production and employment expands sparingly but at a lower level when compared to September. In addition, the greenback was also being weighed down by a surge in pound sterling following reports that Britain is close to securing a financial services deal with the EU. The deal would enable UK financial services firms to gain access into the EU market after Brexit. Furthermore, sterling was further boosted after Bank of England hinted a faster pace of interest rate hike should UK and EU reached their consensus upon Brexit withdrawal agreement. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was down 0.11% to 1.2999.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 2.25% since yesterday to $63.58 per barrel. The precious commodity extended its losses after India and South Korea agreed with the US on the outline of deals that would allow them to import some Iranian oil, playing down crude supply shortage possibility from US-backed sanction against Iran. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,232.97 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 52.3 | 52.3 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 52.1 | 52.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) | 134K | 193K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 3.7% | 3.7% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Oct) | 63.3K | 12.7K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) | 2.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 01:00 (3rd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 875 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 95.95. MACD which illustrate the imminent formation of golden cross suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60
Support level: 95.95, 95.55
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.1415. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the bottom. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30
Support level: 112.60, 112.10
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7205. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to experience technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7235
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the strong resistance of 0.6610. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 0.6660.
Resistance level: 0.6660, 0.6700
Support level: 0.6610, 0.6575
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3080. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after a successful closure above 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9960
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the strong support of 64.80. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggest its price to extend its losses, towards the target at 62.50.
Resistance level: 64.80, 65.45
Support level: 62.50, 60.25
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 1237.25. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10
Support level: 1228.00, 1215.95