03 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback slumped over escalation of U.S.-China trade war.
Dollar index slipped lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.06% to 89.62 as of writing following the release of softer U.S. manufacturing data and escalating trade tensions between U.S. and China. Overnight, ISM purchasing managers’ index has recorded a fall to 59.3, missing the expected reading of 60.1. In addition, Greenback was being pressured continuously after China unveiled its retaliatory by imposing up to 25% tariffs on 128 different U.S. imports including seamless steel pipes, fruit, nuts and wine in response to Trump administration’s introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports which is likely to include about $50 billion to $60 billion worth of technology products. As a consequence, increased trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world added investors’ fears over the prospect of a trade war. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.24% to 105.88 following recent escalation of U.S. – China trade war tensions.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended losses by 1.57% to $63.15 per barrel after Russia reported an increase in crude production from 10.95 million bpd to 10.97 million bpd for the month of February, thus increasing investors’ concerns of oversupply. Otherwise, gold price rose 1.63% to $1338.10 a troy ounce attributable to renewed trade war between the U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
04:30 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.7% | 0.7% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 58.4 | 58.4 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 56.6 | 56.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 55.2 | 54.8 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 5.321M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4080 and support level at 1.4010. A lack of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair.
Resistance level: 1.4080, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4010, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior retracement from 200-MA line. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross suggests downside bias for the pair yet a breakout below the 23.6 Fibonacci level and ascending trend line is required to confirm the signal.
Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2415
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2220
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower after breaking support level at 106.00. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 105.40.
Resistance level: 106.00, 106.50
Support level: 105.40, 104.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 63.30. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher to retest its previous low.
Resistance level: 63.30, 63.80
Support level: 62.40, 61.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 1342.80. MACD signal line that shows a death-cross would indicate the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards the support level at 1338.10.
Resistance level: 1342.80, 1350.20
Support level: 1338.10, 1334.90