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3 May 2017                          Daily Analysis


All eyes on Feds: will they signal rate hike?

Greenback seesawed during early Asian trading on Wednesday while financial market awaits the Federal Reserve’s policy statement for further hints regarding the outlook of US interest rate hike. The Feds are widely expected to keep their interest rate unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting but investors will be scavenging for further clues whether the central bank would downplay prior softcore economic performance, leaving the doors open for a rate hike in June. The dollar index eased 0.05% and last quoted at 98.72. “Prior concern about geopolitical risk such as North Korea placed some pressure on the greenback. However, recent focus was shifted towards the performance of US economic fundamentals and the upcoming jobs data will be closely watched by investors,” said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global market analyst. In the other region, euro was held steady at $1.0933 as investors look ahead for the second round of French presidential election between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen this weekend.


In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 1.05% to $48.16 following a decline in US inventories last week by 4.2 million barrels. Similarly, gold price was up 0.10% to $1,256.34 as investors’ appetite for riskier assets eased slightly ahead of Fed’s interest rate decision later tonight.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                     HKD                      Hong Kong – The Birthday of the Buddha

All Day                     KRW                     South Korea – The Birthday of the Buddha

All Day                     JPY                       Japan – Constitution Day


Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00                       USD                      FOMC Statement


Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
06:45 NZD- Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8% 0.8% 1.2%
15:55 EUR – German Unemployment Change (Apr) -30K -12K
16:30 GBP – Construction PMI (Apr) 52.2 52.0
17:00 EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% 0.5%
20:15 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) 263K 175K
22:00 USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 55.2 55.8
22:30 Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories -3.641M -2.333M
02:00 USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%




GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level of 1.2860. Signal line from MACD histogram which begins to illustrate upward signal suggests GBPUSD to advance further up and retest near the resistance level of 1.2965.


Resistance level: 1.2965, 1.3085

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2770




EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. A successful breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace from would suggest EURUSD to be traded lower within the triangle in short-term thereafter.


Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.0950

Support level: 1.0920, 1.0895




USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains traded within a downward channel while recently closed above the 60-moving average line (green). A successful closure above the strong resistance level of 112.15 would suggest USDJPY to test near the top level of the channel thereafter.


Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40

Support level: 110.60, 108.10




CrudeOIL, H1:  Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 47.70. Indicator from MACD which begins to hover outside of downward momentum suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its losses.


Resistance level: 48.15, 48.50

Support level: 47.80, 47.40




GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the support level of 1251.45. Recent rebound suggests gold price to be traded higher in short-term as retracement period. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests gold price to be traded with a downward channel trend.


Resistance level: 1260.85, 1267.40

Support level: 1251.45, 1239.50