3 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounds amid imminent trade war.
Greenback rose sharply on yesterday following optimistic regional economic data which reaffirms investors expectation that the economy could withstand potential trade war with its trading partners. The dollar index rose 0.25% to 94.54 during Asian trading hours. According to ISM, manufacturing index for the month of June showed an uptick from 58.7 to 60.2, exceeding economist forecast of only 58.4. The reading which fared well above the threshold of 50 shows further expansion in manufacturing sector that accounts for 12% of entire US economy. Likewise, the dollar remained broadly supported as investors place their bet on US economy that may fare better in a potential trade war as they have low reliance on exports when compared to EU and China. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD was down 0.05% to $1.1638 following heightened political uncertainty in Germany. According to reports, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s interior minister offered his resignation due to disagreement over migration policy.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled down 0.11% to $74.06 per barrel after US President Donald Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has agreed to raise output by up to 2 million barrels per day to resolve possible supply shortage in the market. Otherwise, gold price recovered its losses by 0.05% to $1,242.62 a troy ounce while investors continue to ponder upon next major economic data release from the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 52.5 | 52.5 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | -0.8% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -9.228M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the mid-level. Both MA line and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.3150, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1640, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1590, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent rebound from the upward trendline. Coupled with both MA line and recent price action which signaled bullish bias, the pair is expected to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level at 111.05.
Resistance level: 111.05, 111.45
Support level: 110.55, 110.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate upward signal may suggest the commodity price to extend its gains following a bullish rebound from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 74.90, 76.10
Support level: 72.80, 71.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggest the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 1240.00.
Resistance level: 1246.00, 1249.15
Support level: 1240.00, 1234.50